How do you find betting value in a game that is destined to be a laugher?
The biggest mismatch of the group stage comes our way on Sunday when France takes on Canada in Milan.
The Canadians have been relentless through their first two games, easily passing stiffer tests against Czechia and Switzerland by a combined score of 10-1.
These mismatches at international tournaments are tricky to handicap, but bettors can look for value in the player-prop market.
Canada vs. France odds, prediction
A lot of game theory will come into play in this one. Canada should be able to get ahead, pad their lead, and then go into cruise control. Getting everybody out of this game in one piece is paramount if the Canadians are going to capture the gold medal.
That should lead to more ice time for players down the lineup for Canada, and less (relatively speaking) for the likes of Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Macklin Celebrini.
And the good news for us is that the betting market often struggles to adjust in these situations. McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, and Celebrini will still be quite pricey in the prop market, but you can find plenty of value by leaning into the opportunity that should be there for role players.
The two players I have targeted are Tom Wilson and Brandon Hagel.
Wilson and Hagel are cut from the same cloth. They’re both experts at mucking up the dirty areas and getting under their opponents’ skin. They’re also highly intelligent and two of the best in the sport at playing second fiddle to elite talent.
Betting on the NHL?
Hagel has been a perfect complement to Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point, while Wilson has spent most of his career cleaning things up for Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom in Washington.
With France expected to crowd the slot and park the bus, hoping to hold on for dear life, there should be plenty of opportunities for Hagel and Wilson around the front of the net, scooping up rebounds, deflecting pucks, or just waiting for the perfect pass from Crosby, MacKinnon, or McDavid.
In a game like this, it’s best to play a small stake on something upside, so we’ll split a bet and hope that either Hagel or Wilson is able to take advantage of a perfect environment to produce something special.
The Play: Brandon Hagel 2+ goals (+1200, BetMGM) | Tom Wilson 2+ goals (+900, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
