It’s Cougars vs. Cougars tonight in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament.
The second-seeded Houston Cougars will get their tournament started with a matchup against the 10th-seeded BYU Cougars in a primetime tilt at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City.
Houston is well-rested after receiving a double bye, while BYU has already won two games by a combined 34 points.
Their blowout wins did nothing to convince sportsbooks and bettors that they can hang with the Cougars in this game, though.
Oddsmakers opened the line for the game at Houston -8.5, and bettors have jumped on the favorites, pushing the line up to 10.5.
BYU vs. Houston prediction, best bet
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of BYU in this spot — a 1-6 record against top-10 teams, including a home loss to Houston, doesn’t inspire confidence in an upset — but conference tournaments offer opportunities for redemption from regular-season letdowns.
BYU opened the Big 12 tournament with a huge win over lowly Kansas State, then walloped West Virginia in the second round.
Now that BYU has a bit of distance from the regular season and some momentum, it looks more like the team that was rolling to start the season, with standout offensive performances from players across the roster.
Kennard Davis has been hot from deep (13-for-25) in his past three games and scored 15 or more in each contest. Star freshman AJ Dybantsa, who leads the nation in scoring, followed up a 40-point game with a 27-point game in Round 2.
That said, the competition level will jump significantly in the quarterfinals.
Houston ended the regular season as the fifth-ranked team in the country with the sixth-best defense based on Bart Torvik’s rankings.
Head coach Kelvin Sampson has always built his teams to win with defense, and this version of Houston can guard the paint and the 3-point line well.
Houston’s opponent’s Effective Field Goal Percentage (46.9 percent) ranks 20th in the nation, and it ranks 10th in opponent turnover percentage.
That should set this game up to be a fun clash of styles: Houston’s suffocating defense against BYU’s explosive offense.
Houston has been a better, more consistent team compared to BYU, but that hasn’t translated to its betting record. Houston was 14-15 against the spread, including 14-15 as a favorite and 9-9 in conference games.
Betting on College Basketball?
Houston also failed to cover with extended rest. With four or more days off, Houston was just 5-5 ATS. BYU is turning the corner at the right time, and with the momentum this team is playing with, a 10.5-point spread feels a bit too wide for this game.
I’ll take the points and expect a fight down the stretch.
The Pick: BYU +10.5 (-110, bet365 Sportsbook)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
