ARLINGTON, Texas — As if we could ask for more out of this World Cup, here comes the most emotional match of the tournament, featuring the sport’s greatest player, with a spot in the final on the line.
For a fixture that is so rarely played — it will be Lionel Messi’s first time facing England, having missed his lone opportunity over 20 years ago due to a red-card suspension — there is so much history. The specter of Diego Maradona in particular will hang over Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Wednesday. So too the Falklands War, which still occupies a huge place in Argentina’s institutional memory bank.
England can make the final for the first time since 1966. Argentina can keep alive its chances of going back-to-back and ending Messi’s international career by making him the undisputed greatest. The Post breaks down the matchup.
When England has the ball
It took Thomas Tuchel until midway into the second half against Norway to finally have a lineup on the field that seemed to make sense. He can’t wait that long here.
There are choices between Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke at right wing; between Djed Spence, Ezri Konsa and Reece James at right back; between Konsa, John Stones and Dan Burn to play center back next to Marc Guehi.
There is Declan Rice’s health to worry about, too, though the central midfielder has been in training after suffering illness in the run-up to the Norway match. That is a lot of questions for a team at this stage of the tournament, and Tuchel has to answer them all correctly.
We have so rarely seen the best of England in this World Cup. If Rice and Elliot Anderson can control the midfield, things will flow from there.
Jude Bellingham and Harry Kane’s quality up front has carried England, particularly so against Norway, but it’s hard to imagine that will continue to be enough.
Can Tuchel get more from his wingers and fullbacks? Will he make the right choices early enough in the match, instead of later on? Maybe this is a match to try Morgan Rogers on the right, where he took most of his touches in a successful appearance off the bench in the quarterfinal.
Cristian Romero and Lisandro Martínez, Argentina’s two center backs, as well as defensive midfielder Leandro Paredes, have all put forth quietly strong tournaments. Argentina is the second-best team of the semifinalists when it comes to expected goals conceded, and it has defended set pieces well. England will need its best performance of the tournament to win this game.
When Argentina has the ball
The good news for Tuchel’s side is that so will Argentina.
La Albiceleste have struggled to get past teams with significantly less quality than England, depending on individual moments of magic from Lionel Messi and Co. to make up for performances in which they’ve looked old and slow for long stretches.
Just like England with Bellingham and Kane, it’s hard to imagine that will be a winning strategy here. Messi has had such an incredible World Cup, but Argentina surely can’t reach the final with start-stop performances from everyone else.
In particular, Alexis Mac Allister and Rodrigo De Paul have been up and down for much of the knockout stages. Julián Alvarez scored the go-ahead goal against Switzerland and Lautaro Martínez sealed it off the bench, but the spot next to Messi in Lionel Scaloni’s 4-1-3-2 has too often been quiet, regardless of which of them has filled it. Argentina needs more from fullbacks Nahuel Molina and Nicolás Tagliafico.
Still, Messi is the ultimate trump card. He transcends tactics, game flow and any other factor. He hasn’t just been the emotional center of Argentina’s team, but the best player at this World Cup, an astonishing feat at age 39. Whatever England tries to stop him, it’s hard to imagine it will work.
Intangibles
These are probably the two best teams in this category in the World Cup.
England has been a mentality monster, surviving down to 10 men in the Azteca and then pulling out a win over Norway in the Miami humidity when it was far from its best. Argentina rallied around Messi for emotional wins over Cape Verde in the Round of 32 and Egypt in the Round of 16, then overcame 10-man Switzerland in the quarterfinals.
Adding onto that is the historical context of this match. Argentina’s players were singing in their dressing room in Kansas City about winning this game for Diego Maradona and for the Malvinas — their name for the Falkland Islands, which England defeated them in a 1982 war to retain. Call this category a complete toss-up.
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Prediction
More heartbreak for England as Argentina wins 4-3 on penalties.
