WASHINGTON — Tuesday will finally end months of speculation and reveal which party will control Congress for the next two years.
But it can be anywhere from late Tuesday night until over a week after Election Day before the winner becomes clear, depending on how close the House and Senate races will be.
Many forecasters are predicting a blue wave will sweep House races, increasing the odds of knowing who controls the upper chamber late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
In recent history, control of the Senate has been determined fairly quickly, but there are a handful of toss-up races this year, including one in Alaska that could face litigation and drag out.
The Post breaks down when the polls close in key races and what to watch out for:
6 p.m. ET: First polls close in parts of Indiana and Kentucky
The first meaningful signal of the night may come out of Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. Because the Lexington-area seat sits entirely within the Eastern time zone, its polls are among the earliest in the country to close.
President Trump carried the district by 15 points in 2024, but the race has tightened since, and Fox News’ Power Rankings moved it from Lean R to toss-up. Republican Alvarado faces Democrat Zach Dembo, a former federal prosecutor, for the open seat.
A Democratic flip this early in the evening would be a bad omen for House Republicans.
The seat is open because Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) is pursuing the Senate seat of the retiring Mitch McConnell. Barr is favored to beat Democrat Charles Booker.
7 p.m. ET: Polls close in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia
Georgia has two marquee races. Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), once considered perhaps the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the Senate, led Rep. Mike Collins (R-Ga.) 48% to 40% in an Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll published Oct. 21.
The governor’s race is tighter. Georgia Republicans have a habit of ignoring Trump’s endorsements, as Gov. Brian Kemp proved when he annihilated Trump-backed David Perdue in 2022. They did so again in June, when billionaire healthcare executive Rick Jackson defeated Trump’s pick, Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, in a runoff.
Jackson now faces former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, a Democrat, in a race Cook Political Report rates as a toss-up. A Bottoms victory would make her the first Democrat elected governor of Georgia since Roy Barnes in 1998.
South Carolina is uncharacteristically competitive. Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) was appointed to the Senate in July following the sudden death of her brother, Sen. Lindsey Graham, and later agreed to seek a full term at Trump’s behest. She’s tied with Democrat Annie Andrews at 48% in a New York Times/Siena poll. Fox News has moved the race from Lean R to toss-up.
Virginia should be an early barometer for the House. The state Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ gerrymandered map proposal — which likely would have handed Democrats 10 of the state’s 11 seats — in May, so the old districts are still in place. Even so, Republican Reps. Jen Kiggans and Rob Wittman are defending districts Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger carried in her 2025 landslide.
In Vermont, Gov. Phil Scott — a Republican who won his last race by 52 points, in one of the bluest states in the country — is in a tight race for a sixth two-year term against Democrat Amanda Janoo, an economist. Scott’s immense personal popularity has sagged in recent years, with Vermont Public measuring a 15% approval drop since 2022.
7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
Ohio is starting to look purple again.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) led Sen. Jon Husted (R-Ohio) 52% to 47% in a Fox News poll, and Fox moved the race from toss-up to Lean D. The special election will decide who serves the remainder of Vice President JD Vance’s term.
Down ballot, the governor’s race could go down as the GOP’s debacle of the cycle.
Republican Vivek Ramaswamy trails Democrat Amy Acton — who ran Ohio’s COVID response as state health director — by 4.7% in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. Ramaswamy’s most memorable contribution to the race was a $4 million ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar. The mother lost custody when her husband was indicted for raping Acton when she was 12, and Acton accuses her of abuse and neglect. Fellow Republicans, including Gov. Mike DeWine and excluding Trump, condemned the ad.
In North Carolina, former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) led former RNC Chairman Michael Whatley (R) 52% to 39% in the final Elon University poll, for the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).
8 p.m. ET: Polls close in Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Washington, DC
Most of Florida actually closes at 7 p.m., and the state famously counts fast, so two redrawn House seats should offer an early indication. Rep. Kathy Castor’s (D-Fla.) Tampa-area 14th District went from Harris +8 to Trump +11 after redistricting, according to Axios. Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) is defending the 25th District — GOP strategists say a Castor survival would leave Republicans with little hope of holding the House, Axios reported.
The statewide races look safer for the GOP. Sen. Ashley Moody (R-Fla.) led Democrat Angie Nixon 50% to 44% in a New York Times/Siena poll, and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) is favored over Democrat David Jolly in the race to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis by similar margins.
Pennsylvania may be where the House is won or lost. Four Republican incumbents face competitive races: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, Ryan Mackenzie, Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry. Perry is in a rematch with former TV anchor Janelle Stelson, one of the most expensive House contests in the nation. At the top of the ticket, Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro is expected to cruise to victory, leading Republican Treasurer Stacy Garrity 59% to 34% in a recent Quinnipiac poll.
Maine’s Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine), seeking a sixth term, is the only Republican on the ballot this cycle in a state Kamala Harris mostly won. She’s running against former state Senate President Troy Jackson, who became the Democratic nominee after Graham Platner left the race over sexual assault allegations, which he denies. Jackson led Collins 52% to 47% in a YouGov poll released Sunday. And because Maine uses ranked-choice voting, the race may not be called Tuesday night.
In New Hampshire, Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) led former Sen. John E. Sununu (R-N.H.) 48% to 41% in a UMass Lowell poll. The two are competing to succeed retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.).
In Mississippi, Republicans are seemingly spooked enough that Trump flew to Corinth on Oct. 26 to rally for Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.). A poll from a lefty firm showed her clinging to a 43% to 40% lead over Democrat Scott Colom. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Mississippi since 1982.
8:30 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arkansas
The Natural State gets the 8:30 p.m. slot to itself, and Republicans are heavily favored.
9 p.m. ET: Polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin and Wyoming
The 9 p.m. slot is likely the most decisive for the Senate majority. Most polls in Texas, Michigan and Kansas close at 8 p.m., but the last precincts in each close at 9 p.m.
In Texas, Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) ousted Sen. John Cornyn in a May runoff after a dawdled Trump endorsement. A Fox News poll now has Paxton tied with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico at 49%. No Democrat has won a Senate race in Texas since 1988. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, seeking a fourth term, led Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa just 50% to 47% in a Texas Southern University poll.
Meanwhile, Michigan’s Senate race took a bizarre turn Sunday. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), who lost the Democratic primary to Abdul El-Sayed, broke ranks with her party to endorse former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers instead. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called it a “despicable betrayal,” giving a boost to El-Sayed’s campaign, which raised $2.4 million that day. El-Sayed led 51% to 45% in a Detroit News/WDIV poll released last week, before Stevens’ defection.
In the governor’s race, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson (D) led Rep. John James (R-Mich.) by six points in a Marist poll.
Kansas hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 1932. Now, Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) faces the Rev. Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor, who held an edge in the final Emerson College poll.
In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and state Rep. Josh Turek (D) have toggled between leading and trailing all fall for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst. State Auditor Rob Sand (D) led Republican Zach Lahn in every October poll for governor.
In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn and Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) were tied at 49% in a YouGov poll. No Democrat is on the ballot. The Omaha-based 2nd District, vacant after Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) retirement, leans Democratic.
In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan led former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya, a Republican, 54% to 40% in a New York Times/Siena poll.
In Wisconsin, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley (D) led Rep. Tom Tiffany (R.) 51% to 44% among likely voters in the last Marquette Law School poll. The race is to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat.
In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has led Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) in polling throughout the fall.
In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) led Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) 54% to 40% in Siena’s final poll. Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) is in a tight race with Democrat Cait Conley in the Hudson Valley’s 17th District.
10 p.m. ET: Polls close in Montana, Nevada and Utah
Montana is home to a close House race in its 1st Congressional District between Republican Aaron Flint and Democrat Sam Forstag.
Republicans are generally favored to win its three-way Senate race as well. Ironically, many Democratic operatives angled to sabotage their nominee, Alani Bankhead, feeling that independent hopeful Seth Bodnar had a better shot at winning. But she refused to bow out of the race.
In Nevada, incumbent Gov. Joe Lombardo (R) is facing a brutal reelection fight against the state’s Attorney General Aaron Ford.
11 p.m. ET: Polls close in California, Idaho, Oregon and Washington
If the battle for control of the House winds up being tighter than expected, California could be determinative of the balance of power in the lower chamber. Unfortunately, it’s notoriously slow at counting votes.
That was the case in the 2022 midterm election cycle, where the expected red wave ended up closer than expected, and it took nearly eight days before the party in control of the House was clear.
Oregon is also home to a buzzy gubernatorial race between the unpopular incumbent Gov. Tina Kotek (D) and Republican Sen. Christine Drazan, who put up a spirited fight against her in 2022.
12 a.m. ET: Polls close in Hawaii
The Paradise of the Pacific hasn’t generated a lot of national attention with its midterm races this year, but polls close in the youngest state in the union around 12 am ET.
1 a.m. ET: Polls close in Alaska
As is tradition, Alaska, which is four hours behind, will be the final state to close. The Last Frontier has one of the most fraught Senate races in the country, between incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and former Rep. Mary Peltola (D-Alaska).
The race has been roiled by a bombshell report that Peltola’s allies recruited Dan J. Sullivan, known as “Decoy Dan,” into the race to confuse voters.
“Decoy Dan” has drawn litigation from the Trump administration, though on Sunday, a judge tossed a bid to block certification of the election if Sen. Sullivan doesn’t win.
Beyond litigation, Alaska uses a ranked-choice voting system that could take time to determine the winner if the election ends up being as close as the polls suggest.
Ahead of Election Day, Alaska’s Division of Elections briefed reporters that the results could begin coming in around 12:45 a.m. ET, according to Scripps News.
