After an uneven 2025 campaign and a move from the Mountain West to the Pac-12, expectations were muted for Boise State this season.
The Broncos were still the favorite to win the conference, but they were not picked to be a runaway train as they had been in previous offseasons.
Eleven weeks later, and it looks like the college football world committed the cardinal sin of underestimating Boise State.
The Broncos have one loss — a one-possession thriller to Oregon — and have won eight in a row since that trip to Eugene.
A victory over Oregon State on Saturday night would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship for the Broncos, and put them one win closer to a spot in the College Football Playoff.
The bookmakers are expecting that to happen, as Boise State is a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday. Oh, and “College GameDay” is in town.
Boise State vs. Oregon State odds, prediction
Only Colorado State had longer odds than Oregon State to win the Pac-12, so it’s quite the feat that JaMarcus Shepard has the Beavers in contention for a spot in the conference championship.
Oregon State will need to upset Boise State to stay alive, but just getting to this point is impressive. Unfortunately, the Beavers are up against considerable odds in Idaho on Saturday.
Quarterback Braden Atkinson, the nation’s leading passer, will miss the trip to the Blue Turf with an injury. Atkinson and true freshman wide receiver Jesse Legree, who leads the nation in receiving yards (1,219) and is tied for the most touchdowns (14), have powered the Beavers all season long.
The Beavers do have a high-upside deputy behind Atkinson in Maalik Murphy, a former four-star recruit who made stops at Texas and Duke before heading to Corvallis, but it’s still a huge blow for a team that relies on the pass more than any other in the country.
But Oregon State may not be the only team playing a backup QB on Saturday.
Fifth-year senior quarterback Maddux Madsen is also banged up and missed last week’s 64-38 win over Colorado State. Max Cutforth filled in for Madsen and acquitted himself fine, but he’s likely to be a downgrade from Madsen.
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Even if Madsen does suit up, it’s anybody’s guess how compromised he will be for this contest.
Whoever starts for Boise State will need to be sharp, because the Broncos are really struggling to get stops right now. The Broncos conceded 83 points in their last two games to Texas State and Colorado State, and they now rank 121st overall in yards per play allowed.
The Oregon State offense, even without Atkinson, should have enough success against this porous defense to stay within the number, especially with the hook.
The Play: Oregon State +14.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
