Exclusive | California voters’ major shift on billionaire tax revealed in new poll

California voters are souring on a proposed billionaire tax, with more than half opposing the measure, while a contentious voter ID proposal has sparked a razor-thin divide in the deep-blue state, a new California Post poll reveals.

Proposition 40, a proposed one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires that would primarily fund health care, faces opposition from 52.6% of voters, compared with 34.5% in support, with 11.5% undecided, according to a new California Post poll conducted by McLaughlin & Associates.

“Voters just don’t trust Sacramento politicians when it comes to taxes. Whenever pollsters ask should we raise taxes on billionaires? People say why not but naturally when we ask should they raise taxes on you? People say no- especially when affordability is the top issue,” said pollster John McLaughlin.

“However, message that Prop 40 was poorly written that there’s a loophole which could raise taxes on many more people than just billionaires is resonating. The fact that this won’t be a just one time tax, but a recurring tax cut n many more people is resonating,” McLaughlin added.

A Citrin Center-Politico poll released last week found California voters narrowly favored Proposition 40, with 46% supporting it and 43% opposed.

Google co-founder Sergey Brin, the world’s fourth-richest man, has spent more than $100 million to fight the Billionaire Tax and avoid shelling out an estimated $13.3 billion.

Brin’s net worth is estimated to be around $267 billion. He recently donated another $20 million to Build a Better California, which is an organization that advocated against California’s proposed billionaire tax, according to a recent filing.

Another contentious ballot measure, Proposition 39, which would require government-issued identification to vote in person and identifying information on mail ballot envelopes, is nearly evenly split.

The measure draws 45.6% support and 47.8% opposition, with 5.9% undecided, according to the California Post poll.

“The voter ID measure has exposed a sharp partisan divide, with 91% of Republicans supporting it and 76% of Democrats opposing it,” McLaughlin told The Post.

“Because President Trump has pushed it so hard, it’s become a partisan issue, where Republicans are in favor of it in California, and Democrats are opposed to it,” he added.

McLaughlin also said that the measure’s official ballot title, which begins by warning that it “prohibits citizens from voting” without government-issued identification, could be influencing voters.

“When somebody phrases something, prohibits citizens from voting, they know they have a negative phrase,” he said.

Recently, federal agents collared suspects in a slew of voter fraud cases, chasing targets across California drawn from a list of more than 20,000 suspected noncitizens in the state who allegedly registered to vote in next month’s midterm election.

Under the effort dubbed “Operation Protect the Vote,” law enforcement authorities sought more than two-dozen noncitizens charged with fraudulently registering to vote in US elections, in which most of them allegedly cast illegal ballots. Authorities called it the biggest such takedown in the state’s history.

Alexander Muñoz, 72, was among those arrested.

Muñoz, a Belizean national, fraudulently registered to vote in September 2019, claiming he was a US citizen, according to prosecutors. He then voted in US elections in 2020, twice in 2022, and in 2024.

Voters head to the polls on Nov. 3.

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