The Broncos and Chargers meet in Los Angeles Sunday, with both teams looking to shake off underwhelming Week 4 showings.
Nothing has gone right for Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers this season, as they enter Week 5 as one of five winless teams at 0-4. After trailing the Seahawks by as many as 17, they fell short in a 30-23 loss.
Meanwhile, Sean Payton’s team fell apart, literally and figuratively, in San Francisco, as their top two cornerbacks, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, both picked up injuries in last week’s 24-14 loss to the 49ers.
Oddsmakers have Bo Nix and the Broncos listed as 3.5-point favorites on the road.
Both AFC squads marched into this campaign eyeing the postseason, but something’s gotta give in this matchup.
Broncos vs. Chargers prediction, best bet
The interesting thing about this contest is that Denver is winless on the road, and Los Angeles hasn’t won at SoFi Stadium this season.
While the Chargers’ offensive line has changed more than a model at a fashion show, the Broncos’ defense and secondary will miss key firepower.
For starters, in two road games, Denver’s defense has allowed 27.5 points, compared with the 19.5 they’ve allowed at home in Mile High. The Broncos’ run defense has been susceptible, struggling to limit opposing ball carriers and ranking 30th in run-defense EPA.
With Nix and the offense averaging just 12 points on the road through Week 5, Harbaugh and the Chargers have a clear path to stealing a win.
It starts with giving Omarion Hampton and Keaton Mitchell plenty of carries in Mike McDaniel’s underperforming offense, which averages a modest 16.8 points per game.
Herbert has been sacked 12 times in four games but showed signs of life last week against Seattle, albeit in garbage time. Now, with Surtain II and Riley sidelined, he can settle in and find open receivers if he gets enough time in the pocket.
Betting on the NFL?
When the going gets tough, Hampton and Mitchell’s running game, which put up a season-high 147 yards in Week 4 and accounts for 121.5 yards per game, could help overcome the offense’s struggles.
I’m backing the winless Chargers to pull off an upset.
The Broncos’ unproven road record and defensive injuries make them a tough team to trust. Payton is also 2-5 against Harbaugh in head-to-head matchups.
The play: Chargers moneyline (+160, DraftKings)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
