High gas prices, the lingering Iran war and growing voter discontent with President Trump are dragging House control away from Republicans — with the Senate now in jeopardy, too.
In the House, prognosticator Larry Sabato’s “crystal ball” has Democrats leading in 208 seats, Republicans up in 203, and 22 tossups — after moving eight House races in the Dems’ direction.
The magic number of seats Democrats need to seize control of and make House Minority Leader Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) the House speaker is 218.
Experts for months have considered flipping the Senate to be the heavier lift, but Republicans are now playing defense in some unexpected states.
Republicans have a narrow lead — 48-47 — in the University of Virginia political scientist’s Senate ranking. But Kalshi prediction markets have moved in the Democrats’ direction, now giving them a 58% chance of getting the four seats needed to take over. Republicans currently control the chamber 53-47.
The Kalshi odds for Democratic control of the House have hit 90%.
Elections expert Charlie Cook wrote that the GOP’s most likely scenarios have shifted to “bad, really bad, or truly horrible.”
Republicans are taking notice — one reason Vice President JD Vance jetted to Iowa Friday, where he gave a shout-out to Republican Senate candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa), who tellingly did not attend his event in Council Bluffs.
She leads Democrat Josh Turek by just 1 percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average.
That followed a Vance trip last week to Kansas, where Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) trails megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton 45-43 in a new Emerson College poll of likely voters. That is within the poll’s 3.6% margin of error.
“This poll finds Democrats with their best chance to win their first Senate seat in Kansas since 1932, in part driven by Democrat Hamilton’s appeal to independent voters,” said Spencer Kimball, who directed the poll.
In one move in the GOP’s direction, the Cook report moved the New Hampshire Senate race, where former Sen. John Sununu (R-NH) is attempting a comeback, into the “toss up” column.
Voters are finally getting to have their say. Early voting began in Virginia and a handful of states Friday, and North Carolina has already sent out mail ballots.
In a stark illustration of the party’s growing distance from Trump, Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) — normally a White House loyalist — put out a new TV ad telling the president his immigration enforcement policies have “gone too far.” Trump on Friday said he disagreed with her but didn’t disavow her.
“She got a little bit soft on the border, I understand that,” he told reporters.
A shock Marquette Law School poll this week gave Democrats a 13-point edge on the “generic” question of which party voters favor. The same poll had Trump’s approval on handling inflation at just 21% among registered voters.
“These are the kind of polling numbers that are fueling discussion of a potential ‘blue wave’ this November,” wrote Craig Gilbert, a fellow with the school’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research.
He cautioned, though, that Republicans still hold an “underlying edge in the playing field,” since so many of the key battles are being fought on GOP turf.
House Republicans aren’t giving up, and already have managed to carve out expected gains through mid-term redistricting. And the latest fundraising number for the National Republican Congressional Committee had it leading the Democratic campaign arm by $13 million, $89 million to $76 million, Axios reported.
The pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. earlier this month invested $10 million in Texas, where Republican Ken Paxton is battling state Democratic Rep. James Talarico.
“We remain bullish in terms of holding the Republican Senate majority,” said one Republican operative.
“Republicans are capitalizing on their newfound coordinated-spending firepower and deploying resources to battle-tested candidates across a Senate map that continues to favor the GOP,” said Bernadette Breslin, national press secretary for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “Come November, Senate Republicans will retire Democrats’ socialist slate.”
