WASHINGTON — Republicans are going to “defy history” and cling to the lower chamber on Nov. 3 — despite widespread expectations of a blue wave, House Speaker Mike Johnson insists.
Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Johnson (R-La.) was exceptionally optimistic about conservatives keeping the majority, arguing that it is “common sense” versus “communism.”
Historically speaking, the party in control of the White House has lost House seats in all but two midterm election cycles since 1938.
“You can write it or quote me. I’ve been saying this over and over, but Republicans are going to defy history in 63 days, and we’re going to hold this House majority,” he insisted.
“That’s for a simple reason because the American people recognize the historic stakes of this, and they really do understand that this is a contrast election,” the speaker added.
“It’s contrasted with common sense … and communism. This year is different. 2026 is different. This is going to be a midterm unlike any other.”
Republicans have only 219 seats, including Independent California Rep. Kevin Kiley, while Democrats’ seat count is set to jump to 214 after Everton Blair and Aisha Wahab get sworn in this week.
This means that the GOP has just a three-seat majority.
Johnson’s predecessor, former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), recently chided that it would be a significant failure for Republicans if they lose the lower chamber, given all the redistricting that took place over the past year and a half.
“I believe we can keep the majority and we should,” McCarthy told Newsmax last week. “If we don’t, I think there’s something wrong with how we’re campaigning.”
Polls have been bleak for Republicans, with Trump’s approval rating 17.5 percentage points underwater and the GOP down 6.4 points against Democrats on the generic congressional battle, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling aggregates.
Surveys have found widespread anxiety about affordability and the war in Iran. There are also questions about whether Republicans will turn out enough of their base without Trump on the ballot.
The Cook Political Report has Democrats favored to win 205 seats and Republicans 209, with 21 races deemed tossups.
The speaker said he is “absolutely convinced” the GOP can win enough of those tossups.
Johnson, who claims to have swung through some 55 cities for about 75 different campaign events over the August recess to boost Republicans’ chances in key swing districts, said he was feeling the energy on the ground.
“You’re going to see me with boundless joy around here,” Johnson insisted. “I’m very optimistic about this.
“This is not campaign rhetoric. I’ve seen it myself. I went to every one of these districts. I’ve seen the people,” he went on.
“Many people are not down with communism. I’m glad we’re on the right side of this.”
