Remember Travis Kelce — the football player?
Since becoming Taylor Swift’s husband has seemingly overshadowed his identity, you’d almost think the game is merely a hobby for the 36-year-old. At least that’s how the masses see things, and evidently trading rooms, too.
The Chiefs went from dynasty to disaster last season, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014. It was also the first time they failed to win the AFC West in 10 years.
If there’s any common denominator throughout the success of three Super Bowls and seven AFC Championship appearances in the span, it’s Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Reid. Mahomes and Kelce’s rapport is arguably the greatest quarterback-tight end tandem of all time, but after the former fell to an ACL tear in Week 15, their fate was all but sealed after already withstanding key injuries all season.
Although Kelce’s production, which was already regressing, took a blow, he still managed to top his career-low 2024 output by 23 yards. And he did that on 25 fewer targets, 21 fewer catches, and three games of Chris Oladokun under center, no less.
Mahomes has achieved a full recovery and is on track to start Week 1 at Arrowhead Stadium against the Broncos. He’ll also have a restored offensive line in front of him after it collapsed to injury late last year, which will buy him more time to find his targets.
In the meantime, sportsbooks feel as though Kelce is still honeymooning on a hammock somewhere: his 2026 receiving yardage prop stands at 675.5 at FanDuel, a 175.5-yard drop from his 2025 total.
Let’s not forget that even if the Chiefs lost their mojo, the offense still ran through Kelce as he led the team in yards, targets, and catches and tied for the most receiving scores. Of course, that’s primarily due to the fact that Rashee Rice missed the first six games due to suspension and Xavier Worthy dislocated his shoulder three snaps into the campaign.
Even so, Kelce would need only 79.4 percent of last season’s production to clear this line.
He’s made his career on chunk plays, getting downhill and using his size and balance to evade defenders. Nothing about his game last season evidenced a decline in this ability; he cleared his average yards after catch per reception rate by two-fifths of a yard at 5.6 and posted a catch of 15-or-more yards in 11 of the 14 games Mahomes started.
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The four-time First-Team All-Pro’s relationship with Mahomes simply can’t be replicated elsewhere, and no one knows that better than Kelce himself. He chose to leave money on the table from other teams to sign an extension in Kansas City for a reason. Kelce restructured his deal into a three-year, $54.7 million contract, but it’s essentially a one-year commitment for 2026, with the following two primarily serving as salary-cap mechanisms.
That one year is not going to waste, as it’s very likely it could be his last. Kelce and Mahomes may not be the inexorable force they used to be, and while his age and regression are baked into the line, we don’t need them to be at their zenith to cash on a Swift discount.
The play: Travis Kelce Over 675.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
