The NFL Most Valuable Player Award is among the most prestigious honors in sports, and it can be tough to nail down what exactly gives one player the edge over others besides playing quarterback.
Good numbers are a prerequisite, but typically aren’t the deciding factor on their own. A strong narrative certainly helps, but can be subjective and leave voters split.
Even sportsbooks weren’t convinced on a favorite down the stretch of last season as the two-man race for MVP bounced back and forth between Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.
In the end, Stafford’s 24 first-place votes narrowly beat out Maye’s 23 in the closest vote since 2003 when the league had a pair of co-winners.
We could have a much more crowded field by season’s end.
Stafford is not the favorite to win MVP despite the fact that his Rams are favorites to win the Super Bowl. Instead, bookmakers have installed Josh Allen at the top of the odds board with +650 odds to become the 11th NFL player to win multiple MVP awards in his career.
Allen took home MVP honors in 2024, beating out Lamar Jackson, who set a career-high with 41 passing touchdowns, and Saquon Barkley, who ran for 2,005 yards.
2026 NFL MVP odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Josh Allen | +650 |
| Lamar Jackson | +850 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 |
| Justin Herbert | 10/1 |
| Matthew Stafford | 10/1 |
| Drake Maye | 11/1 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 12/1 |
| Dak Prescott | 14/1 |
| Caleb Williams | 16/1 |
| All others | 22/1 or longer |
While there are four previous winners among the top-10 in betting odds (Allen, Jackson, Stafford, and Mahomes), bettors are flocking to three quarterbacks who haven’t won before.
According to BetMGM, Joe Burrow is the most-bet choice to win MVP ahead of the season with 13.9 percent of betting tickets, representing the biggest liability at the sportsbook.
Caleb Williams (10.5 percent) and Justin Herbert (5.8 percent) have the second- and third-highest ticket percentages at the sportsbook. However, Herbert’s handle (20 percent) is higher than his fellow quarterbacks by a significant margin.
Among those three passers, Burrow has the most pedigree. He’s finished top-four in MVP voting twice in his career, led the NFL in completion percentage in 2021, and led the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns in 2024.
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Herbert finished ninth in MVP voting in 2022 and 2024, but the Chargers’ offense has finished among the top-10 in the NFL in scoring just once in his six seasons with the team. Williams is entering his third season and became the NFL’s most exciting gunslinger during his playoff run.
Another lesson to take from last season is the preseason odds can’t predict breakout seasons. Stafford was 35/1 to win MVP entering last season, and Maye was 50/1 before the regular season kicked off.
There certainly could be another outlier being overlooked with a month to go before the season begins.
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
