It’s looking more and more like Freddy Peralta will be a sunk cost for the Mets.
When David Stearns acquired him in January in exchange for two valued prospects, the two-time All-Star was expected to slide into the rotation as a frontline ace.
Instead, Peralta has struggled gravely in New York. He falls behind in counts, his pitch sequencing has been poor and there’s been a steep drop off in deception. Known as a strikeout artist, Peralta’s swing-and-miss percentage has plummeted and he’s on pace for the lowest strikeout per nine clip in his nine-year career.
All six of his pitches have seen an uptick in opposing batting average.
Mets vs. Dodgers prediction, best bet
Peralta was knocked around in his last start against the Brewers, returning to his former team’s park only to cough up seven earned runs in 5 ⅓ innings. It was the first time he completed five innings of work in four starts.
With Peralta’s pending UFA status and the Mets’ tailspinning season, he could use a change of scenery while the Mets look toward the future. But he now sports a 5.01 ERA heading into Sunday’s series finale against the big-bad Dodgers — the fourth-highest among qualified starters.
The Dodgers are expectedly on cruise control toward defending their back-to-back titles in October. They lead all of baseball in wRC+ and have a run differential of plus-160 ahead of Sunday’s games.
Peralta’s career against the Dodgers has been hit or miss, owning a 3.29 ERA in 41 innings.
Peralta’s high walk rate is a concern against a patient Dodgers lineup that owns the third-highest walk rate in baseball.
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He also throws fastballs more than 50 percent of the time — a pitch that nine Dodgers have positive run value against per Statcast.
The play: Freddy Peralta Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-150, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
