Giants Trade Tiers: Players most, least likely to be on the move at the deadline?

KANSAS CITY — Ever since Tony Vitello’s first days of spring training, there’s been one element of professional baseball that has stood out to him after a lifetime of college ball.

The professionalism.

“It doesn’t mean that it’s not personal or there’s not emotions involved,” Vitello remarked recently. “But it’s literally pro baseball.”

That has been the case whenever the first-year manager has had to deliver hard news, whether it be roster cuts at the end of camp or transactions through the first portion of the season.

It’s never been more relevant than the conversations he will have to have over the next few weeks, when there will almost certainly be a stream of players who have played integral roles to this point who are called into his office and informed that they’ve been traded elsewhere.

Thus is the life of a team so down-and-out that there’s no question about its position at the MLB trade deadline. Inevitably, key players will be subtracted from the roster by the time Aug. 3 comes and passes.

“It’s honestly a sense of relief,” Vitello said of the contrast from his college players. “Whereas when you’re dealing with families and you’re dealing with kids, a smaller amount of coaches, some of those bonds that last for a while, there’s a lot more emotion that’s tied to it. 

“Not that it’s completely nonexistent at this level, but it is pro baseball. There is a business part to it. I think it becomes almost a part of everyone’s routine of understanding everything that comes with it.”

There are a couple players who are all but certain to be dealt, but president of baseball operations Buster Posey and the front office could go in a number of different directions as one of only six teams more than four games out of a playoff spot.

Broken into six tiers, these are the most and least likely Giants to be on the move:

Tier 1: Practically out the door

Luis Arraez, 2B

Robbie Ray, LHP

It’s up for debate what odds are lower: The chances of the Giants making a miraculous run to October, or the chances of either Ray or Arraez sticking around past the trade deadline.

Arraez has revived his career through his defensive work with Ron Washington, and now should be one of the most coveted hitters available for any team seeking an upgrade at second base.

Any contender should be comfortable giving Ray the ball in a playoff game. The 34-year-old left-hander comes with the pedigree of a former Cy Young winner and the recent success of someone with the fifth-best ERA (1.90) of any starter dating back to May 31.

Download The California Post App, follow us on social, and subscribe to our newsletters

Both players will be free agents after this season, making it a foregone conclusion that they’ll be dealt.

For what it’s worth: FanGraphs pegged the Giants’ playoff odds at 0.5% entering Monday.

Tier 2: If anyone wants these Giants

Tyler Mahle, RHP

Adrian Houser, RHP

JT Brubaker, RHP

Sam Hentges, LHP

Jason Foley, RHP

There’s always a market for pitching depth and bullpen help, so Posey should have the opportunity to cash in on some of these pieces. It just depends if the price is right.

Mahle is the more likely trade candidate, as he’s only under contract for the rest of this season. The Giants are still on the hook for the $11 million owed to Houser in 2027.

Brubaker is also a pending free agent, while Hentges and Foley will both be in line for raises through arbitration. The two rehabbing relievers were signed to give the Giants’ bullpen a midseason boost. Maybe they can still serve that purpose somewhere else.

Tier 3: Really, does anyone want them?

Willy Adames, SS

Rafael Devers, 1B/DH

Matt Chapman, 3B

Alternate title: The albatrosses.

Multiple reports surfaced last month as the Giants hit rock bottom that they were open to trading any of their three tentpole infielders, and nothing’s changed there.

Likewise, the task of finding a trade partner interested in taking on the money owed to any one of these players is just as much a challenge now as it was then. Devers is owed another $211 million through 2033 and Adames’ backloaded deal will pay him $155 million though 2031. Chapman’s deal is more palatable, but even that has another $100 million and four years left.

A deal remains unlikely enough that Adames and Chapman have said they haven’t been approached about waiving the no-trade clauses each player possesses.

Tier 4: Available for the right offer

Heliot Ramos, OF

Casey Schmitt, 3B/UTIL

Keaton Winn, RHP

Caleb Kilian, RHP

Erik Miller, LHP

In the more-likely-than-not scenario that the Giants are stuck with their terrible trio, it might make sense to consider seeing what they can get for Ramos or Schmitt.

Both players would be forced to play less than ideal positions in San Francisco, with Devers and Bryce Eldridge blocking the DH spot where Ramos belongs and Chapman holding down the hot corner where Schmitt has, to no surprise, looked like a natural in his recent absence.

Both players should also be highly coveted on the trade market, which doesn’t feature many impact bats from the right side, let alone any under team control until 2030.

Likewise, the trio of relievers could also command a higher price given that Miller is the only one of them even set to reach arbitration next year. All three possess the kind of stuff that a team confident in its pitching department could envision in late-inning, high-leverage situations.

Tier 5: Probably not going anywhere

Jung Hoo Lee, OF

Arguably the only player more popular among the Giants fanbase is the only one Posey singled out as a no-go even in the most drastic firesale, Logan Webb. For that reason alone, plus Lee’s global appeal as Korea’s most successful baseball export, it’s hard to see him going anywhere.

Not to mention: Imagine how hard to watch this team would be without Arraez or Lee.

Tier 6: Off the table

Logan Webb, RHP

Bryce Eldridge, 1B/DH

Posey was asked about Webb because, in theory, it could make sense in a total teardown for the Giants to cash in their biggest trade chip. In no uncertain terms, Webb would bring back a haul on the level of the top arms ever to be traded at the deadline.

It would be the kind of trade the Giants would consider if they wanted to reset their timeline around Eldridge and their highly regarded teenage shortstop prospects, Josuar Gonzalez and Luis Hernandez. But they aren’t expected to arrive in the big leagues until at least 2028.

By then, Webb will be 32 and in the final year of his team-friendly extension. Posey made it clear that they want the homegrown ace to play out that deal and, in all likelihood, sign another.

On that note, the Giants would love to lock down Eldridge long-term. There was no point in asking Posey about his availability this deadline. It would have gotten the same answer teams have gotten when they have inquired in the past: a definitive no, maybe a deafening laugh.