After years of unchecked dominance from the SEC, the Big Ten Conference cemented its place as the best in college football in the 2025-2026 season.
The Indiana Hoosiers completed a remarkable 16-0 season by winning a National Championship, beating Ohio State in the conference championship game, dominating Alabama in the Rose Bowl, then blowing out Oregon in the College Football Playoff semifinal.
That completed a Big Ten trifecta, with the Michigan Wolverines winning a championship in 2024, then the Buckeyes following it up by beating Notre Dame to win the title in 2025. While the SEC might have better depth overall, it’s no question that the top of the Big Ten is as good or better than anyone.
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Indiana Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti after defeating the Miami Hurricanes in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida on Jan. 19, 2026. (Mark J. Rebilas/Imagn Images)
And a new program might be ready to take their turn at the top of the Big Ten: those same Oregon Ducks.
One of the most predictive measures of a team’s strength from year to year is how much production they return from the previous season. It makes sense; the more key players that stay with the team, the better it is for continuity and development.
The Big Ten, oddly enough, has several teams that return much of their production on both sides of the ball. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ran the numbers, finding that teams like Maryland, Nebraska, Minnesota and UCLA all ranked in the top 10 nationally in returning value. Though given how these teams played in 2025, that’s less important. Number 12, though? The Oregon Ducks.
And that carryover production is coming from a team that lost just two games all season, both to Indiana. They handled a very good USC team, 42-27, overcame miserable conditions to outlast the Iowa Hawkeyes on the road, beat the rival Washington Huskies, and most impressively, shut out an elite Texas Tech team 23-0 in the College Football Playoff. And they bring back the players responsible for 66% of their overall production, including star quarterback Dante Moore.
Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) warms up prior to the 2025 Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinal against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. (Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
Just behind them at 65%? USC, heading into a pivotal season under Lincoln Riley.
Here’s where Oregon has the advantage, however. They bring that percentage back from a team that was significantly better than USC. It’s no surprise then, that per Connelly’s SP+ projections, Oregon is expected to be the No. 2 team in the country, by efficiency on offense, defense and special teams.
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What about the other Big Ten schools, though?
USC is the biggest wildcard. They sit at No. 13 in the SP+ projections, thanks to an elite offense and a defense that’s expected to be solid, if unspectacular. But their special teams projections are all the way down at No. 100 in the country, thanks to a series of disastrous mistakes in 2025. Special teams, though, should be the easiest area to improve upon. So if the Trojans can make some adjustments, they could exceed the eight game win expectancy.
Ohio State and Indiana, the two most recent champions, have a bit of a tougher hill to climb, though their roster composition is far from disastrous. The Buckeyes bring back 60% of their production, while Indiana is at 56%, even with several huge departures. That ranks at No. 31 and No. 52, respectively. Important, but not enough to push either team out of the top 5 in the national projections. And Ohio State sits at No. 1, thanks to consistently elite recruiting and key players like Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith returning.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning attends Oregon Pro Day on March 17, 2026, at the Moshofsky Center in Eugene, Oregon. (Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)
But if there is an upset brewing at the top of the conference, Oregon might be the place to look. The question then becomes, can they put it all together against a difficult schedule? The Ducks play USC on the road, host Nebraska, travel to Illinois, play Ohio State on the road, host Michigan and have their rivalry game against Washington at Autzen.
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It won’t be easy, but don’t be surprised if at the end of the season, Dan Lanning and the Ducks are right back in the mix.
