SEATTLE — The incredible decision by FIFA to reinstate Folarin Balogun on Sunday almost overshadowed that there is a match to be played Monday, in which 21 players aside from the U.S. striker will be on the field at all times — well, barring another red card.
That match qualifies as the most important the U.S. national team has played since at least the 2002 quarterfinal loss to Germany. Not only is it a chance to get back to that stage for the first time since, but it’s happening on home soil, on prime-time television, against an opponent that — while certainly elite — seems to qualify as beatable.
The ratings will almost assuredly set records. And if the U.S. can win, it will go a long way toward changing what the very sport of soccer means here in America.
The Post breaks down the matchup between the U.S. and Belgium.
When the U.S. has the ball
With the exception of Turkey — a game in which Mauricio Pochettino’s lineup was rotated beyond recognition — this is the first opponent the U.S. has faced that won’t sit back and absorb pressure.
That changes the contours of the match significantly. Pochettino will presumably want his team to play the same way, but whether it can execute that style against Belgium differs entirely from doing so against Bosnia-Herzegovina.
Will he dare commit as many men forward knowing Belgium’s speed in attack? And can the Americans maintain possession as they have against a team that’s held on to the ball slightly more than them throughout the tournament, at 57.6 percent of total possession compared to the 57.1 percent for the U.S., per FotMob?
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More than likely, that will lead the U.S. to counterattack more than it has; those are moments in which it needs to be fast and decisive given Belgium’s counter-pressing abilities. Lose the ball in buildup and it will be an issue.
That said, Belgium’s defense has shown itself to be vulnerable. It ranks 32nd at the World Cup in expected goals allowed, and Pochettino’s side should be able to break it down, even without as much possession as it’s used to having.
When Belgium has the ball
So much of the puzzle Pochettino will have spent this week trying to solve is how to handle Jérémy Doku, the superstar Belgian winger who terrorized his side back in March. The good thing is that 5-2 defeat in which the Americans played a back four and tasked Tim Weah both with pushing up the field and dealing with Doku 1-on-1 will have essentially zero tactical resemblance to this game.
Trying to avoid putting anyone at all in 1-on-1 situations against him will be imperative. Much like Christian Pulisic for the U.S., Doku can create and beat players off the dribble in a way that no one else on his team can.
Much of Belgium’s system is predicated not just on getting him the ball, but on controlling the wings in general. Fullbacks Timothy Castagne and Maxim De Cuyper will push up high, allowing the wingers to invert, and strikers Charles De Ketelaere and Romelu Lukaku — the latter will likely come on for the former in the second half, based on the pattern of this tournament so far — to receive crosses in the box. Belgium also shoots the ball often, leading the tournament in total attempts.
One wrinkle is the way the Red Devils improved against Senegal in the Round of 32 after Doku and Kevin De Bruyne — their longtime midfield superstar — came off after 56 minutes. Their pace in particular looked much faster. That seems to create some selection dilemmas for manager Rudi Garcia, though leaving out either player would be a massive call.
Intangibles
How Balogun’s return impacts the atmosphere around the game is an irresistible storyline. The U.S. could hardly contain its delight at training Sunday. Belgium, which prepared all week assuming it wouldn’t have to face Balogun, was understandably livid. The crowd, it’s safe to assume, will be completely behind Balogun and the United States.
This dynamic, one has to imagine, will benefit the U.S.
Prediction
2-1 USA in extra time.
