The UFC returns to the Middle East on Saturday for Fight Night in Baku, Azerbaijan.
It’s a very early start time with the prelim card beginning at 9 a.m. ET and the main card starting at noon.
Finishes have been on an absolute tear since the White House card, with 14 of the last 18 UFC fights ending by finish over the last two cards.
An obscene streak is reflected in the odds, as this card features 12 fights, 10 of which are projected to end inside the distance.
It might be time to buy the dip at UFC Fight Night Baku.
UFC Fight Night Baku predictions
Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres
It’s always good when the best fight on the card is the main event.
In the lightweight division, Torres faces off against Fiziev in a true pick ’em fight as there is no favorite at the time of this writing.
Fiziev is the more proven fighter, while Torres comes in as the rising prospect who has won six of his seven fights in the first round.
Fiziev is a tough cookie, as he’s one of the only fighters to go six full rounds with now-lightweight-champion Justin Gaethje and nearly win the fight.
He has lost four of his last five fights against the peak competition that the UFC has to offer, two of which to the current champion.
There’s plenty of concern that Fiziev has accumulated too much damage to win against a madman like Torres, who has won so many fights in the first round.
But Fiziev survived against Gaethje and went the distance twice. I think Fiziev is the clear side here, and I’m not sure that Torres is as dominant as he appears, considering his level of competition.
Prediction: Fiziev moneyline (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook).
Shara Magomedov vs. Michel Pereira
I’ve always been a fan of Pereira, but it appears his best days are behind him at just 32 years of age.
“Bullet” Magomedov is a slam dunk every time he goes out there to mix in high volume with strong striking and maybe shoddy defense.
I don’t think Pereira is the guy to expose Magomedov’s defensive holes on the feet, and he doesn’t have anywhere near the gas tank to proactively grapple.
Pereira’s cardio is among the worst in the promotion, and Magomedov should be able to win here easily.
He’s expected to win by knockout, but I don’t think that’s a fair number considering he couldn’t even knock out Bruno Silva when they fought.
Regardless of how you shake it, Magomedov is the guy to anchor your parlays.
Prediction: Magomedov wins in Over 1.5 rounds (-120, DraftKings).
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UFC Fight Night Baku full fight card picks
Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo: Camilo by decision (+650, DraftKings).
Asu Almabayev vs. Charles Johnson: Almabayev by decision (+110, BetRivers).
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira: Fight goes the distance (+300, DraftKings).
Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk: Oleksiejczuk by decision (+480, BetRivers).
Farman Hasanov vs. Eric Nolan: Nolan by KO/TKO (+325, BetRivers).
Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev vs. Julius Walker: Yakhyaev by submission (+155, Fanatics).
Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev: Ruziboev by decision (+320, Fanatics).
Kaan Ofli vs. Javier Reyes: Reyes by KO/TKO (+240, FanDuel).
Daniil Donchenko vs. Theodor Berggren: Donchenko to win in round two (+350, FanDuel).
Bekzat Almakhan vs. Jean Matsumoto: Fight goes the distance (-167, BetRivers).
Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento: Nascimento moneyline (-105, FanDuel).
Why Trust New York Post Betting
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