After stealing Game 1 in Oklahoma City, the Spurs have now lost two straight to the reigning champion Thunder and can ill afford to fall behind 3-1 in the Western Conference finals.
Friday’s 123-108 loss in Game 3 marked the largest deficit the Spurs have lost by in this year’s playoffs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 26 and dished out 12 assists, but it was the Thunder bench that answered the call with Jalen Williams sidelined.
Most teams would slam the panic button if a member of their starting five was limited to just four of 11 playoff games due to injury, but not the Thunder.
OKC’s reserves outscored the Spurs’ bench 76 to 23, thanks to otherworldly performances by Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, and Jaylin Williams.
Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have now entered must-win territory. They are slight 1.5-point favorites on the spread and -140 on the moneyline in Game 4.
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 prediction, best bets
Coach Mark Daigneault’s next-man-up mentality has lifted OKC to two wins away from its second consecutive trip to the NBA Finals.
Whether it’s McCain, Caruso, or defensive Swiss-Army Knife Cason Wallace, this Thunder bench delivers starter-level production that can wear down the opposition in many ways.
They also play better on the road as a team, averaging 124.2 points per game on 59.4 percent shooting from 2s, 41.6 percent from 3s, and 85.6 percent from the charity stripe.
Like the Knicks, the Thunder had a significant rest between the semifinal and conference final rounds, and it’s beginning to show.
The Spurs made short work of the Timberwolves, closing them out by 30 points in a Game 6 blowout. However, that series-clinching performance, which featured 56% field-goal shooting, has not carried over into this series.
The Thunder’s defensive physicality has dropped the Spurs’ offensive efficiency to just 44% on 2s and 33.9 percent on 3s through three games. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper combined to go 3-of-14 from 3-point range in Game 3.
The hope is that the Spurs can get more better shooting days from their guards, but between the injuries to both Fox and Harper, along with the lack of experience in crucial moments, the tide has shifted.
Even Wemby’s Game 1 masterclass of 26 points in the paint has been neutralized by stronger defenders, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams. The French phenom was limited to just ten paint points in both Games 2 and 3.
Betting on the NBA?
While the writing isn’t exactly on the wall, oddsmakers indicate the Thunder have seized control of the series, giving them -450 odds to win it and +200 to close things out in five games on BetMGM.
A player prop to target for Game 4 is the over on Gilgeous-Alexander’s line of 7.5 assists.
San Antonio’s defense is doubling him at will, and in five road games this postseason, the two-time MVP is averaging nine assists.
As for the game, I’ll take a swing at the under of 218.5.
THE PLAY: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 7.5 assists (+102, FanDuel) | Under 218.5 total points (-110, BetMGM)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
