The Montreal Canadiens and Buffalo Sabres will meet in a do-or-die Game 7 on Monday night in Western New York.
Most of the time, series that go the distance in the Stanley Cup playoffs follow a familiar script. The two combatants are evenly matched, play tight games, and each contest (and the series) is decided by a clutch moment, bad break, or mistake.
This isn’t one of those series.
Only one game between the Sabres and Canadiens has been decided by one goal, while four of the six were settled by at least four tallies.
It’s really hard to tell who has been the better team in this series, and that’s why the odds for Monday’s Game 7 are so tight.
Canadiens vs. Sabres Game 7 odds, prediction
Both teams have endured a roller-coaster ride in this series.
For Buffalo, it’s been about goaltending. Alex Lyon started Game 1 for Buffalo, played well, and then wilted in the next two contests.
That opened the door for Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to return to action, but he could only keep the crease for a couple of nights before Lyon was back as the starter for Game 6.
The journeyman only lasted three shots in that tilt, but Luukkonen saved the day in reserve duty, leading Buffalo to an 8-3 win.
Betting on the NHL?
The Canadiens now have their own goaltending issues brewing. After a stellar performance in Round 1, Jakub Dobes has traded good starts with poor ones for the Habs, which should have him on a short leash in Game 7.
In front of the goalies, the margins have been thin. The two teams have essentially split the shot attempts and expected goals at 5-on-5, while Buffalo has generated just seven more high-danger scoring chances at even strength.
Each team has seen its star players go in and out of the cooler, while depth players like Jake Evans for the Canadiens and Zach Benson for the Sabres have stepped up.
With the tale of the tape essentially being a wash, finding value in Game 7 really comes down to guesswork. Handicapping can often be more of an art than a science, and this is one of those situations.
The one edge that does pop up for this contest is experience. Both of these rosters are young and playing deep into the postseason for the first time as a group, but the Habs just played a Game 7 two weeks ago. Dobes was in the cage for the Canadiens that night and stood on his head, stealing the win for Montreal against the Lightning.
Given how tight everything else looks on paper, we’ll lean on that intangible for our bet in this clash.
The Play: Canadiens moneyline (-105, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
