The Winter Olympics are behind us, and now it’s on NHL teams to re-focus and get ready for what should be a frenzied race to the finish line of the regular season.
Unlike in recent years, there are several playoff spots in both conferences up for grabs and most of the awards races still hang in the balance.
It’s been a long time since we’ve had a season play out in this fashion.
Not only will the uncertainty make for terrific viewing, but it will also offer plenty of high-upside betting opportunities across several markets.
Two long-shot prices stick out in particular:
Best value to win the Stanley Cup
Ottawa Senators (80/1, BetMGM)
The Senators have a lot of work to do just to get into the playoffs.
They’re six points behind the Boston Bruins for the last wild-card spot, and there are a handful of other contenders vying for that same spot.
That said, there are a lot of signals that indicate that the Sens will not only be a real threat to put some pressure on the teams currently occupying the last playoff spots, but also to make a deep run if they get into the dance.
The most important part of this equation is that several of the teams currently occupying playoff spots (Boston, Pittsburgh, Detroit and the Islanders, for example) all look vulnerable to a tailspin.
But the Senators’ statistical profile also stands out.
Ottawa has been one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL all season long. The Sens rank fourth in expected goals rate, fifth in high-danger scoring chance percentage and are the best team in the league at preventing scoring chances.
The problem is that the Sens rank dead last in the NHL in save percentage (.868). That’s almost hard to believe since no team in the league does a better job of protecting its goaltender.
Part of the problem has just been simple ineffectiveness, but the Sens also had to deal with an off-ice controversy when No. 1 goalie Linus Ullmark had to take a leave of absence for personal reasons. All told, the Sens have used five different netminders this season.
If Ottawa’s goaltending can improve to, say, 24th-best in the league instead of 32nd, it can surge up the standings, which would be bad news for the top seeds in the East because the Senators profile as a sleeping giant.
Best value in the awards markets
Rasmus Dahlin to win the Norris Trophy (500/1, FanDuel)
For the first three months of the season, it seemed like an inevitability that Cale Makar would win the Norris Trophy. But all of a sudden, this race has some serious juice.
Makar is now a co-favorite with Zach Werenski of the Columbus Blue Jackets at -110 (bet365), and there are a handful of dark horses (Quinn Hughes, Lane Hutson and Evan Bouchard) all under 30/1.
But there is another name that deserves to be in the mix.
Betting on the NHL?
Rasmus Dahlin has been the most important player for the Sabres during their midseason resurgence.
The smooth-skating Swede plays nearly 25 minutes a night for Buffalo. He runs the power play, gets first billing on the penalty kill, and is tasked with going up against the opposition’s best players every night.
Very few skaters have a tougher workload night in and night out than Dahlin, and he’s thriving in those minutes, ranking ninth among defensemen in points per game this season.
Dahlin will need to turn his -6 into something much more palatable to get consideration, but if he does that, and the Sabres get into the playoffs, he will start to get some serious consideration for this award, so long as Makar and Werenski slow down a touch.
A lot has to fall into place for this one, but it’s certainly worth a sprinkle at this price.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
