The NBA Cup semifinals kick off Saturday with two awesome games between four of the top teams in the NBA.
The primetime game is a highly anticipated showdown between the young, feisty San Antonio Spurs and the seemingly unbeatable Oklahoma City Thunder.
This game would have been fun to watch if the Spurs were playing the same lineup that mopped the floor with the Los Angeles Lakers in the knockout round, so the added bonus of having Victor Wembanyama listed as probable makes this matchup all the more enticing.
Oddsmakers see zero difference, however, having opened the spread at 10.5 and holding that line as we near tipoff. The Over/Under has seen noticeable action, climbing up from 226.5 to as high as 233 at some shops.
Spurs vs. Thunder odds, prediction
The semifinals of the NBA Cup has become a spot for up-and-coming teams and players to showcase that they can raise their game a level on a bigger stage. In 2023, we saw the emergence of Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers, who later made a run to the Eastern Conference finals after missing the postseason in the three prior seasons.
The Rockets fell short against the Thunder last season in the semis, but that game was one of the many signs that Amen Thompson is a budding star for the Houston Rockets, who were an afterthought before making the playoffs last season.
The Spurs fit that mold as a team with something to prove and enough talented players to make a statement but it’s unlikely that results in an actual win against this Thunder team. Right now, moral victories are all teams can take off the reigning champs.
Still, this should be an opportunity for bettors.
The Spurs have been scrappy without Wembanyama in the lineup since mid November — a stretch that also overlapped with the absence of Stephon Castle — but with their full lineup, they looked like top tier Western Conference team.
Their defense was leading the charge. Before Wembanyama’s injury, the Spurs ranked sixth in Defensive Rating, allowing 111.5 points per 100 possessions. Since he was sidelined, the Spurs rank 20th and allow 117.2 points per 100.
The Spurs will need to be at their best on that end of the floor to stifle what the Thunder have been doing offensively. The Thunder have buried teams so much in the first three quarters of games this season that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played in just 11 fourth quarters through the Thunder’s first 25 games.
Betting on the NBA?
Wembanyama will be on a minutes restriction and won’t play long stretches even when he’s out there, but he’s so good this season that he can have an enormous impact on a game even in limited minutes.
I’ll never downplay the start the Thunder have had to this point in the season because I think they have a legitimate shot at 74 wins, but the Spurs are arguably better than every team the Thunder have faced so far save for the Rockets on opening night.
The way the Thunder are rolling right now, an 11-point win could still be a competitive game, but I’m not expecting the Thunder to have the offensive explosion they had against the Suns a few nights ago. I like the Under in this game and expect to see both defenses to slow the pace down.
The Pick: Under 233 (-109, BetRivers)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
