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It’s not the sexiest card, but there are primetime fights worth betting on this weekend.
Twelve bouts are again on the docket this weekend, with an even spread ahead as six fights are projected to end inside the distance.
Five of those are projected as lopsided matchups, with favorite odds above -350 at the time of writing.
The entire card is on cable television, where it will be a late night, as the prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET and the main card kicks off at 9.
Tatsuro Taira vs. HyunSung Park prediction
In the main sevent, Taira faces off against Park after losing a five-round fight to Brandon Royval.
Taira nearly won that bout but wound up losing by split decision, thanks to some poor striking, and was even nearly submitted by Royval.
Park is taking this fight on short notice, as Amir Albazi was not medically cleared to fight, but he was previously slated to meet former title challenger Steve Erceg in August so he should be in shape.
It was always going to be a step up in competition for Park, and I think the odds are too far out of whack here, as Taira comes in as a -370 favorite.
Taira does a poor job keeping his head off the center line, while Park does an excellent job striking and hits with power.
Where things could get sketchy for the big underdog is grappling, as Park could easily be taken down and controlled for a 50-45 decision.
I have this fight projected at -275 0dds for Taira, so there’s about five percent value on Park.
I prefer to live bet Park and see how he handles Taira’s strong grappling chops.
Pick: Live bet Park if he stuffs the first takedown attempt
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Chris Duncan prediction
Another grappler here getting some respect from oddsmakers, as Rebecki walks into the co-main event slot as a -200 favorite.
Duncan is a winner of two straight, shockingly by guillotine choke.
That’s all well and good since winning two straight as an underdog by submission is impressive, but it could be dicey if you know Rebecki is looking to wrestle.
Rebecki is a strong grappler who has never been submitted. Duncan is going to have a striking advantage and probably is the better athlete.
Regardless, I don’t see a finish in the cards for either fighter.
Expect a close split decision where beauty is in the eye of the beholder, and bet on the fight to go all the way.
Pick: Fight goes the distance (+160, Fanatics)
Neil Magny vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos prediction
The first fight of the main card is between two elder statesmen, as Magny (37) faces dos Santos (38).
This fight comes down to who has more left in the tank. At his best, neither fighter was ever really close to a UFC title shot. Mostly they were gatekeepers of the welterweight division.
Each fighter has lost three of his last four bouts, although Magny has been forced into fights with title contenders.
Magny has first-round knockout losses to Carlos Prates and Michael Morales in his last two fights but defeated Mike Malott by TKO prior to that — but don’t forget that he was losing that fight until the KO.
Frankly, this feels like two guys who are fighting to get to the scorecards. I project this fight goes to the scorecards more often than not.
Pick: Fight goes the distance (-150, BetMGM)
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Rest of the card
Elves Brener vs. Esteban Ribovics: Brenner moneyline (+210, DraftKings)
Karol Rosa vs. Nora Cornolle: Rosa by decision (-120, bet365)
Danny Silva vs. Kevin Vallejos: Either fighter by KO/TKO (+115, Fanatics)
Rinya Nakamura vs. Nathan Fletcher: Nakamura by KO/TKO (+200, BetMGM)
Rodolfo Vieira vs. Tresean Gore: Viera Over 1.5 takedowns (-165, Underdog)
Nick Klein vs. Andrey Pulyaev: Pass
Austin Bashi vs. John Yannis: Bashi by submission when lines come out (+175 range)
Rafael Estevam vs. Felipe Bunes: Pass
Piera Rodriguez vs. Ketlen Souza: Souza by decision (+300, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
