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The oddsmakers believe that the men’s side of the 2025 Wimbledon Championships is a two-horse race between Jannik Sinner and two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.
Less than a month removed from their five-set thriller in the French Open final, Alcaraz, who won that match, is a +110 favorite to win his third Wimbledon title in as many years, and Sinner is right behind him at +200.
Novak Djokovic is also getting plenty of respect as the third choice at +650, but it’s pretty clear who everybody expects to meet in the finals at the All England Club in two weeks.
It’ll take a gargantuan effort to upset Alcaraz, Sinner and, to a lesser extent, Djokovic, but there are a few players being offered at tempting prices for the third Grand Slam of the 2025 season.
Daniil Medvedev to win (40/1, FanDuel)
Things have not come easily for Medvedev this season, but the 2021 U.S. Open champion should be buoyant heading into Wimbledon.
Not only does he have back-to-back trips to the semifinals at the All England Club, but he’s coming into the fortnight in decent form, and he should benefit from a soft draw.
Medvedev is the second favorite to win Quarter 2, just behind Alexander Zverev and in front of Taylor Fritz. This is easily the softest quadrant of the tournament. Medvedev has battled injuries for the better part of a year now, but his performance on the grass at Halle suggests he’s fully fit and firing. The Russian made it to the finals of that 500-level tournament, dispatching Zverev along the way.
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There are very few players outside of Alcaraz, Sinner and Djokovic who make a compelling argument, but Medvedev belongs in that cohort, and you’re getting him at a terrific number.
Tommy Paul to win (110/1, FanDuel)
Paul is suited for best-of-five tennis. A relentless competitor, Paul is tough to put away, and he’s able to raise his level against the best players. He’s yet to have a breakthrough moment at a Grand Slam, but he did win a title on the grass last year, he is a former semifinalist at the Australian Open, and he was a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon in 2024.
The New Jersey native is in the same section as Sinner, but his first three matches should be very manageable, so it’s worth backing him at this massive number.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard to win (420/1, FanDuel)
Wimbledon is its own beast. Not only because it’s played on grass, but also because there really is no warmup season for the third Grand Slam of the year, which is played just weeks after the French Open.
That means we have to use our imagination a bit more when handicapping Wimbledon, especially when it comes to predicting potential dark horses.
Mpetshi Perricard stands out for two reasons at this price: His serve and his path.
According to the ATP, Mpetshi Perricard has the second-highest serve rating on tour behind only Fritz. As fate would have it, the Frenchman is playing Fritz in Round 1 of Wimbledon and is a +280 underdog for the match.
And though there is certainly a sizable risk that Mpetshi Perricard doesn’t even get out of Round 1, if he does upset Fritz, his path completely opens up until a potential showdown with Medvedev in the Round of 16.
It’s not all that uncommon for a player to serve his way to a surprising run at Wimbledon (Christopher Eubanks did it a couple of years ago), and Mpetshi Perricard is my pick to do that this year.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
