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You disappoint me, Cal. Kimmel and Colbert were sitting right there.
Arkansas (+5.5) over Texas Tech
The Red Raiders have the higher seed. The Razorbacks have more talent, momentum and belief. The only double-digit seed left in the field can’t be viewed that way, far removed from months of underachieving, awkwardness and a shorthanded rotation. John Calipari is back in the Sweet 16 for the 16th time, facing off with a coach (Grant McCasland) with three career NCAA Tournament wins. With Boogie Fland back, and NBA-level size and athleticism, the Hogs have no ceiling. A third straight outright upset could be in the cards.
Maryland (+6.5) over Florida
The top seed barely survived its second-round matchup with UConn, allowing 14 offensive rebounds and 32 points in the paint, while committing 12 turnovers and missing 12 free throws. The Gators could face similar problems against the Terps, who have the size to cause problems inside and force turnovers at a higher rate than all but one team left in the tournament. Maryland made headlines with Derik Queen’s buzzer-beater, but it very quietly makes its biggest statements on defense, ranking sixth nationally in efficiency.
The Terps, who led the Big Ten in scoring margin, have only suffered two losses since Feb. 7, both coming on buzzer-beaters against Sweet 16 teams (Michigan State, Michigan). None of their eight losses this season has come by more than six points. The Terps’ overreliance on their starters may be their downfall, but the Gators may not be able to take advantage of the weak bench, ranking 185th in the nation at drawing fouls.
Duke (-9.5) over Arizona
Ride the Blue Devils (23-12 against the spread as a favorite) until they give you reason not to. In a November matchup between the teams, Duke shot under 43 percent from the field, committed 14 turnovers and had only two players score in double figures — and won by 14, holding the Big 12’s top-scoring offense to 55 points. Yes, Duke has Cooper Flagg, but also a pair of other projected lottery picks (Kon Knueppel, Khaman Maluach), who have Duke on pace to capture its first national championship in a decade.
Betting on College Basketball?
Byu (+5.5) over Alabama
Two of the best offenses in the nation will welcome a shootout. But the Cougars come in hotter, having won 11 of their past 12 games — the Tide lost five of nine entering the NCAA Tournament — owning the nation’s top-rated offense in the past month. BYU is built for a 40-minute sprint, running an 11-man rotation, which shoots better than 37 percent from 3, led by leading-scorer/sharpshooter Richie Saunders.
The Cougars’ top pro prospect, Egor Demin, will benefit from the fast-paced game most of all. In crawls against the elite defenses, the Russian freshman struggled with pressure. In a shootout against Wisconsin in the second round, Denim was incredibly efficient, producing 11 points, eight assists and eight rebounds, with one turnover. Alabama’s defense won’t offer much resistance.
This season: 20-21
2011-24 record: 378-340-12
