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Not only is the Kentucky Derby one of the best sporting events on the calendar, but it’s also an incredible betting opportunity.
The last six Kentucky Derby winners (including Medina Spirit who was disqualified months after winning the 2021 iteration of the race) have gone off with average odds of 33/1 and two of the champions, Country House and Rich Strike, boasted post-time odds over 60/1.
Last year’s winner, Mystik Dan, took home the prize at an unfancied price of 18/1, giving us a third winner in as many years above 15/1.
There is a reason that long shots do well at the Kentucky Derby. It’s a race made for chaos.
Most stakes races cap their field at 14 horses, but the Run for the Roses allows for 20 starters, which makes it a two-minute carnival of pandemonium.
In other words, it behooves bettors to have some exposure to long shots, whether that means a bet to win or just in exotic bets, like exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.
Here are our favorite long shots for the 151st Kentucky Derby.
2025 Kentucky Derby long shots
No. 3 Final Gambit (30-1): We’ll see if this price hangs around, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a juicy number on Final Gambit considering he has never raced on dirt in his career.
Putting that aside, he’s got a lot going for him. This Kentucky-bred gray took a massive step forward in the Grade III Jack Ruby Steaks and seems to be peaking at the perfect time for trainer Brad Cox.
No. 7 Luxor Cafe (15-1): This price could drift out a bit more as bettors are tired of falling for a Japanese horse only to be let down on Derby Day, but I’ll bite one more time.
Luxor Cafe has the pedigree – he is the son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah – and form to get you in at this kind of price.
His performance at the Fukuryu Stakes gives me confidence that he’ll make noise on Saturday.
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No. 10 Grande (20-1): Like 2023 winner Mage, Grande is lightly raced, but his performances are heading in the right direction, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he steals the show on Saturday.
No. 16 Coal Battle (30-1): It would be a surprise to see Coal Battle getting a ton of support on Saturday, but that’s OK.
He may not love the distance, but this horse has shown a great deal of versatility with four wins at four different tracks. He’s one to keep an eye on if Mother Nature is grumpy.
