Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani would easily win the race for New York City mayor — but he’d have a true dogfight on his hands in a one-on-one contest, a new survey claims.
The socialist candidate would lose 41%-52% in a head-to-head battle against ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo and face a much tighter 45%-42% race if incumbent Mayor Eric Adams were his only opponent, according to the poll conducted for the New York Apartment Association.
But campaign strategists not affiliated with the campaigns on Wednesday laughed off the findings as “fantasy” as Mamdani faces three opponents on the November election ballot with none so far willing to step aside.
In a full slate, Mamdani was projected to run away with 42% of voters, the poll by Tulchin Research found.
In that scenario, Cuomo would only net 26%, while Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa would take 17%, Adams 9% and independent Jim Walden 3%, according to the survey.
But remove the other two candidates and Cuomo jumped up to 52% to 41%, the poll found — concluding nearly all of the other candidates’ supporters would side with the ex-governor over Mamdani.
“Cuomo is currently leading Mamdani in a head-to-head matchup, with a broader and more diverse coalition and Mamdani’s appeal limited to his progressive base,” Ben Tulchin, Kelsey Bullis and Corey Teter of Tulchin Research said in an Aug. 26 memo to the association.
Mamdani leads Adams by a slim 45 to 42% in a one-on-one matchup, according to the survey.
Tulchin worked for Adams’ 2021 mayoral campaign while the association backed Cuomo in the June Democratic primary where Mamdani handily defeated the ex-governor and a slew of other local candidates.
“Looks like a fantasy poll commissioned by Andrew Cuomo,” said Democratic strategist Ken Frydman.
“If the election were held today, Cuomo would not beat Mamdani in a one-on-one race.”
Those participating in the poll were not asked about a Mamdani-Sliwa contest.
“This poll strains credulity,” said Sam Raskin, senior vice president of Slingshot Strategies, who worked for ex-comptroller and mayoral candidate Scott Stringer in the Democratic primary..
“These are people who don’t want Mamdani. They are trying to create a scenario that doesn’t exist. They’re better off trying to accept reality.”
During the primary, nearly all the polls overstated Cuomo’s support and underestimated Mamdani’s, whose campaign benefited from a larger turnout of younger voters aged 40 and under.
In the apartment owners’ poll, nearly two-thirds of voters queried — 63% — were aged 50 or older, while just 37% were under 50.
Sliwa, the Republican nominee and founder of the vigilante group the Guardian Angels, is polling a strong third in the race.
He has continually said he has no intention of bowing out of the race.
Analysts said Sliwa, who will have an advantageous ballot position as the GOP nominee, will likely get a higher percentage of the vote in the November general election than the polls suggest.
Adams, a Democrat who skipped his party’s primary as he grappled with corruption scandals, also is standing for re-election as an independent despite his low standing in the polls.
The poll asked 1,000 likely voters via phone and online surveys about housing issues and the mayor’s race from Aug. 7-14.
It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1-percentage points.
Of those queried in the poll, 74% were Democrats, 12% Republicans, 11% independents and 3% “other.”
