After six months of playing games almost every night, one could argue that the latest MLB postseason format serves more as a disadvantage to those who earned byes.
That testament rang true for the better part of Game 1 in the ALDS between the Yankees and Royals.
The Bombers allowed Kansas City to strike first before having to reclaim the lead three times following six days of rest.
Now that we are settled in, I expect the starting pitching to tighten up in Game 2 between Carlos Rodon and Cole Ragans.
Rodon led MLB in Stuff+, which measures the physical characteristics of a pitch, and he tamed the Royals to a 2.08 ERA in 13 total innings.
My only thing is it’s been 10 days since Rodon last pitched. Make of that what you will, but the 31-year-old’s last playoff appearance was in 2021 — his only career start in which he recorded a loss after getting pulled in the third inning.
Rodon can draw swings; he raised his strikeouts per nine rate significantly from 2023 to 10.03. However, the Royals finished with the second-fewest strikeouts and struck out seven times to the Yankees’ 11 in Game 1.
Rodon remains alarmingly susceptible to high exit velocities and launch angles according to his Statcast profile that reflects bottom percentiles in both hard hit and barrel rates.
Ragans will ride the momentum from his stellar postseason debut Tuesday, when he stupefied a potent Orioles lineup with eight strikeouts in six shutout innings.
He allowed just four hits and struck out seven hitters in the six innings he pitched against the Yankees on Sept. 11.
Ragans’ strong batted ball profile poses a challenge to the No. 1 home run lineup; he was taken for only 0.69 long balls per nine innings on the road.
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Push comes to shove, we know that this Royals offense is capable of knocking the ball in play, tying the Yankees with nine hits in Game 1, so I’m taking the moneyline value on the pitcher with a more convincing edge.
THE PLAY: Royals ML (DraftKings, +130)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
