Anybody else beginning to get that déjà Yankees feeling?
You know, the one where they beat an AL Central team in the playoffs then lose to the Astros. And then we listen to how it is a crapshoot.
Except since 2015, the Yankees are 5-0 in postseason series vs. AL Central clubs and 0-4 against Houston. At some point, it is not a crapshoot, but déjà Yankees right down to all the postseason postmortems.
Cue: how they were a championship team that didn’t win the championship and next year will be their year and …
What could be more of a nightmare season for the Yankees than losing to the Astros again after manhandling Houston by winning six of seven before the second week of May and seemingly leaving the Astros dead for the season. Except the Astros are not dead. They are a looming Michael Myers — Halloween is in October after all.
But this is getting ahead of the calendar. The Yankees have a pretty darn important September first.
I know there is a lot of recent theorizing that getting a bye in the first round can be debilitating as your team rusts while others play, since two wild card teams (Texas and Arizona) reached the World Series last year and Philadelphia did as the No. 6 seed in 2022. But in the eight seasons from 2015-22, the AL was represented by the No. 1 seed six times and the No. 2 twice.
And if you offered all 30 GMs the opportunity to play a best-two-of-three to open the playoffs or an automatic bye to a best-of-five Division Series, it would be 30-out-of-30 who would avoid the potential of two bad days wiping your club out of the postseason.
So the Yankees need to win the division because the AL East champ is a near lock to get one of the two AL byes, thus making a road to a first World Series appearance since 2009 somewhat less taxing.
But they also need to just win the division. They have no excuses not to do so. You have to maximize when you have Ruth and Gehrig (Aaron Judge and Juan Soto), especially with no certainty that Soto will be back next year.
You have to win when the Yanks might be within the week of getting back Luis Gil, Anthony Rizzo and Clarke Schmidt — and if they want them, Ian Hamilton and Lou Trivino, too — and being as whole as they have been all year.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have been operating without five starting pitchers (Kyle Bradish, Zach Eflin, John Means, Grayson Rodriguez and Tyler Wells, plus sending another acquired at the deadline, Trevor Rogers, to the minors). Baltimore also has on the IL currently its starting corner infielders (Ryan Mountcastle and Jordan Westburg), key utilityman Jorge Mateo and have been going all year without star closer Felix Bautista — and his replacement, Craig Kimbrel, has pitched himself into low-leverage spots.
Through Aug. 14, the Yankees were 72-50 and led the 71-50 Orioles by a half-game. Baltimore then began a 14-game gauntlet in which it played the Red Sox, Mets, Astros and Dodgers while the Yankees were playing the Tigers, struggling Guardians, Rockies and Nationals.
The Orioles were 6-7 going into the finale Thursday night at Dodger Stadium. The Yankees, though, were just 6-6, thus gaining just a half-game in that stretch. This during a period of potential prosperity.
Now, the Orioles’ schedule flip-flops with six straight against the Rockies and White Sox — the second-worst team in the NL and perhaps the worst team ever.
So some opportunity to open up a bit heading into Labor Day weekend already has been lost by the Yankees. The calendar will flip during the holiday, and there will be less than a month to the regular-season finish line. So now it is a sprint to outdo the Orioles over the final few weeks — which includes Baltimore in The Bronx for the next-to-last series.
Really, at this point, it would be unforgivable to finish second with a healthy Gerrit Cole, potentially a full rotation (and more if Gil and Schmidt both return) and the deepest-looking lineup the Yanks have had all year around Soto and Judge.
And the person under the most pressure is Aaron Boone. Traditionally, you might look to a big free agent. But at this point, Soto can go hitless the rest of the season and his free-agent floor is probably a $500 million contract. He already has proven he is one of the best 25-and-under hitters ever and now has done it in New York, and he already has a championship.
At this point, Hal Steinbrenner has shown no inclination to renovate his front office and remove Brian Cashman, who is signed through 2026. But Boone has a 2025 option that has yet to be picked up. He finished first just twice in his first six years, and both times — by the way — beat an AL Central team in the playoffs then was eliminated by the Astros.
In Year 7, Boone has consistently insisted he has a special group, a championship contender — though that sounds familiar. At some point, it is just an endless loop of noise without deeds to corroborate those bromides. So in this all-in Yankees season, first things, first:
Finish first.
