More often than not, someone goes from the basement to the penthouse.
In 21 of the past 25 NFL seasons, at least one team has gone from worst to first in its division.
With the qualifier that one of those seasons in which it did not happen was 2024, it’s still worth knowing that there’s an 84 percent chance that this happens based on recent history.
If you go by this strategy, you’re left with these teams to find a division winner: Patriots, Browns, Titans, Raiders, Giants, Bears, Saints and 49ers.
With two contenders that jump off the page, the 49ers (+165, BetMGM) and Bears (+550), there are some other interesting options as well.
The 49ers are favored to win their division this year, with the Rams also major contenders in the NFC West, coming in at +175.
If you’re buying the 49ers, you’re expecting Brandon Aiyuk to return from injury early in the season, while second-round player Ricky Pearsall takes a step forward, and the rest of the roster gets some positive injury luck.
Christian McCaffrey missed most of the season with Achilles and PCL problems, while San Francisco dealt with a litany of injuries throughout their roster.
What the 49ers get as a result is a last-place schedule for them to run through.
The 49ers will also face teams from the AFC South and NFC South, two divisions that profile as the worst in the NFL.
They invested some assets into the defense, including a premium draft pick on Mykel Williams and also selecting defensive tackle Alfred Collins in the draft.
If you look at the Bears, you’re undoubtedly expecting Chicago to get some NFC North regression from some of the top teams.
Chicago shares a division with the Lions, who were 15-2 last season but lost both coordinators this offseason, and the Vikings, 14-3.
Minnesota, in particular, is due for some regression on that record, especially if you watched how the season ended in 2024.
Losing quarterback Sam Darnold is surely not a help either, as J.J. McCarthy has gotten mixed reviews in camp and might have a tough time matching last season’s offensive production.
Minnesota was ninth in the NFL last season in points per game, coming in at 24.5, and it remains to be seen whether McCarthy is capable of putting up that kind of production after starting zero games last year.
Betting on the NFL?
There are certainly reasons to expect a strong attack from the Bears next season, even without the reality that Ben Johnson is the most sought-after offensive mind in the game.
Chicago invested heavily in its offensive line, signing Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, which should give former No. 1 pick Caleb Williams time to grow behind center.
The Bears lost seven games by one score, and I suspect that changes dramatically in 2025.
Target these two teams to come away with division titles. Even if you end up 1-1, you’ll still take away a small profit.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
