We’ve got ourselves a pretty fishy line on Friday night.
Western Kentucky (4-1) is a 2.5-point underdog against Delaware (3-1), despite the fact that the Hilltoppers grade out as a better team across the board.
It’s not unusual to see a couple of peculiar college football lines each week, but this one definitely sticks out.
Let’s try to make sense of what’s going on in this wonderful Conference USA matchup.
Western Kentucky vs. Delaware odds, prediction
The main reason that the betting market seems to be siding with the Blue Hens is that it’s a decent schedule spot for the favorites.
Not only is this game being played at Delaware Stadium, but they’re coming off a bye, while Western Kentucky spent last Saturday beating Missouri State in Springfield.
After that, the tale of the tape tends to swing back towards the Hilltoppers.
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Both of these teams lean on their offense, particularly the passing the game, to drive the bus.
Delaware ranks 46th in the country in yards per play (5.8) and is 35th in total yards per game (422). Per Team Rankings, the Blue Hens generate 0.406 points per play, which is the 62nd-best mark in the country. Not too shabby for a C-USA squad.
Western Kentucky’s numbers are almost a mirror image. The Hilltoppers generate 5.7 yards per play, 419.5 yards per game, and 0.410 points per play.
The Hilltoppers do carry an edge in terms of finishing drives, but everything matches up pretty well when you compare the offenses.
That changes when you look at the defensive numbers.
While the Blue Hens have struggled to defend the pass, the Hilltoppers have been stout. Western Kentucky owns the 13th-best opponents’ completion percentage and ranks 39th in the country in passing yards allowed per game.
In a coin-flip matchup between two pass-heavy offenses, that should be the difference.
The Play: Western Kentucky +120 (FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
