Looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season, the Vikings head to Los Angeles on Thursday night to take on the Rams.
Playing on Thursday night is always tricky, given the quick turnaround for both teams after playing on Sunday.
Adding further complexity to this handicap is the news that the Rams contacted teams about possibly trading 2022 Super Bowl MVP Cooper Kupp.
While Kupp is set to return after a four-game absence, it might make sense to avoid him altogether when putting together our same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Vikings vs. Rams odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings | -2.5 (-122) | -155 | o48 (-110) |
| Rams | +2.5 (_102) | +130 | u48 (-110) |
Vikings vs. Rams same-game parlay (+847, FanDuel)
- Leg 1: ALT total under 50.5 (-158)
- Leg 2: Jordan Addison under 0.5 receptions (-132)
- Leg 3: Aaron Jones over 67.5 rushing yards (-113)
- Leg 4: DeMarcus Robinson over 27.5 rushing yards (-113)
ALT total under 50.5 points (-158)
We might be starting to see some cracks in the Vikings’ armor.
For a second straight game, quarterback Sam Darnold recorded an interception while throwing fewer than two touchdowns.
Even with Minnesota’s 5-1 start, Darnold ranks only 18th in Total QBR (55.1).
The Vikings’ offense is built on running the ball to open up the play-action for Darnold to take shots down the field.
They rank in the bottom half of the league in seconds per snap (27.7) and 28th in offensive plays per game.
If the Vikings can get an early lead, look for them to do a better job dictating the pace, allowing Darnold to excel in his role as a game manager.
Jordan Addison under 3.5 receptions (-132)
The Vikings rank 20th in pass play rate (53%), and Darnold has only one game in which he attempted more than 28 passes.
There simply aren’t enough balls to go around, especially when the quarterback locks in on getting the ball to Justin Jefferson.
Jefferson has more than twice as many targets as any pass-catcher on the Vikings, while RB Aaron Jones ranks second with 23.
Addison is third on the team with 20 targets, and Darnold’s completion percentage when targeting him is the worst among Minnesota’s wide receivers.
He’s gone under 3.5 receptions in six of his last seven games, and unless we start to see an increase in targets, Addison will be worth another fade in Week 8.
Aaron Jones over 67.5 rushing yards (-113)
Jones is off the Vikings’ injury report and is set to start on Thursday night. He’s averaging 5.2 rushing yards per carry, while his backup, Ty Chandler, averages just 3.4.
Given the difference in production between the two running backs, Chandler hardly qualifies as a like-for-like replacement.
Jones will undoubtedly fancy his chances against a Rams defense that ranks 26th against the run using the Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric.
DeMarcus Robinson over 27.5 receiving yards (-113)
Even with Kupp returning and possibly Puka Nacua (questionable), Robinson is still worth a play here.
The Rams have six players with 20 or more targets since Matthew Stafford has had to share the ball around, given the injuries to Kupp and Nacua.
Robinson ranks fourth in targets for the Rams, yet he leads the team in average yards per reception (15.2).
In the two games Kupp played, Robinson still averaged 46 receiving yards, including 42 in the season opener in which both Kupp and Nacua started.
The Rams’ offense looked listless against the Raiders last week, scoring only 20 points despite benefiting from four turnovers.
While Kupp should provide at least some spark, there’s always a threat of the Vikings blanketing him by rolling a safety over the top.
Betting on the NFL?
Robinson had just one catch for 9 yards against the Raiders, but against bottom-10 defenses in receiving yards allowed, he’s averaging 52.8 yards and has gone over this number in five straight games.
The Vikings fit this criteria, and their history of jumping out to early leads this season means their opponents often have to throw the ball when playing from behind.
If that trend holds on Thursday, Robinson should have a decent chance to go over this modest receiving prop.
Best bet: Same-game parlay (+847, FanDuel)
- Leg 1: ALT total under 50.5 (-158)
- Leg 2: Jordan Addison under 0.5 receptions (-132)
- Leg 3: Aaron Jones over 67.5 rushing yards (-113)
- Leg 4: DeMarcus Robinson over 27.5 rushing yards (-113)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Michael Arinze handicaps most major sports for the New York Post. He’s cashed two 15-leg teasers in his betting career as well as a 12-leg parlay that included eight Little League World Series games. More recently, he accurately picked finalists in the 2024 European Championships and Copa America.
