Aryna Sabalenka will have two opponents in Thursday’s semifinal at the 2025 U.S. Open.
Not only will the World No. 1 be taking on Jessica Pegula, but she’ll also need to battle against a raucous crowd, which undoubtedly will give its full-throated support to the American underdog who is looking to avenge a loss to the Belarusian in last year’s final at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
Earlier in her career, you’d be concerned about Sabalenka’s ability to contend in this environment, but the 27-year-old has taken some leaps in keeping her composure over the last 24 months.
Not only did Sabalenka overcome this same crowd in her 7-5, 7-5 victory over Pegula in the 2024 final, but she’s also got two Australian Open titles on her mantle.
Pegula, on the other hand, is into the final four of a Grand Slam for just the second time in her career, and will feel the pressure of knowing that her chances of winning a major are running thin.
While Pegula will be buoyed by the crowd, Sabalenka should come into this match with full confidence that she has a stylistic advantage over the Buffalo native.
Not only has Sabalenka won seven of their nine encounters, including the last three, but all of her victories have come in straight sets.
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Perhaps punters will want to back Pegula as an underdog given her form – she’s yet to drop a set in this tournament – but Sabalenka has also been perfect to this point, and the favorite also has the added advantage of getting an extra day off after Marketa Vondrousova pulled out of their quarterfinal tilt.
Sabalenka is good value to cruise.
The Play: Sabalenka -1.5 sets (-110, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
