The UFC goes international this weekend with a stacked 14-fight card live from Abu Dhabi.
UFC 321 is headlined by a big-time undisputed heavyweight title fight between reigning champion Tom Aspinall and challenger Ciryl Gane.
Combat fans, be sure to set your alarms Saturday morning, as the prelims get going at 10 a.m. ET on ESPN+.
The main event is set for 2 p.m. ET, with Aspinall-Gane ringwalks slated for 4:30 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into some co-main and main event analysis, followed by full card predictions for UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane.
UFC 321 predictions
Tom Aspinall (-345, DraftKings) vs. Ciryl Gane (+275, DraftKings)
Aspinall (15-3) steps into the octagon for the first time in 2025, to the chagrin of many combat fans, it won’t be a megafight opposite Jon ‘Bones’ Jones.
Instead, he’ll face off with top contender Gane (13-2) to close out the card.
Gane is once again thrust into a major headliner, as he is 0-2 in his last two major title fights. His last title shot ended in a horrible fashion, as he lost to Jones via submission in the first round.
Look, every fighter has a puncher’s chance, and Gane is no slouch record-wise, but this is an underwhelming matchup considering the potential of Aspinall-Jones.
Aspinall is riding a three-fight winning streak, avenging a loss to Curtis Blaydes via first-round KO last July, to re-establish himself as the top dog in the division.
With an astounding 14 first-round finishes on his resume, it’s safe to assume this bout won’t go the distance, and oddsmakers agree. Right now, it is -800 on FanDuel for it not to go a full five rounds.
I will give Gane a round, but with Aspinall’s killer 67 percent striking accuracy and 4.09 knockdown average, this one will be over in the blink of an eye come round two.
Aspinall will likely come out patiently in the early portions of the fight to get acquainted with Gane, only to unleash a flurry in the second round to finish things. I’m confident Aspinall knocks him out in the second.
The Pick: Fight Parlays (winning combination) Tom Aspinall by KO, TKO or DQ – Round 2 (+510, BetRivers)
Virna Jandiroba (+124, DraftKings) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-148, DraftKings)
A rematch between a pair of top-5 talents in the division, this time, the vacant women’s strawweight title will be on the line.
Jandiroba (22-3) and Dern (15-5) matched up back in 2020, with Dern emerging victorious via unanimous decision. It was a high-paced clash full of striking, but Dern was able to outmaneuver Jandiroba and keep her ground game at bay.
However, since this fight, Jandiroba has gone 6-1, taking on notably better competition, while Dern has a pedestrian record of 5-4.
Both fighters lean on their grappling, as Jandiroba averages 4.5 takedowns per 15 minutes, and together they have 22 submission wins combined.
This is a tough call, considering Jandiroba enters on a blistering five-fight winning streak. Dern has strung together back-to-back wins herself, most recently defeating Amanda Ribas in January.
I’ll give the slight edge to Dern and bank on her composed grappling defense to once again overwhelm Jandiroba. In what will be a close, contested fight, I’m taking Dern to squeak out a decision win.
The Pick: Dern to win by decision (+250, DraftKings)
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UFC 321 full card picks
Main Card
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane: Tom Aspinall by KO, TKO or DQ – Round 2 (+510, BetRivers)
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern: Dern to win by decision (+250, DraftKings)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista: Nurmagomedov by points (-145, FanDuel)
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida: Almeida to Win by Submission or Decision (-110, DraftKings)
Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov: Murzakanov moneyline (-110, bet365)
Prelims
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld: Haqparast To Win By Decision (+185, DraftKings)
Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park: Aliskerov by KO/TKO or on Points (-145, FanDuel)
Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki: Fight will end by Points (-120, FanDuel)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo: Method of victory Al-Selwady by decision/technical decision (+250, BetMGM)
Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland: Walker to Win by Submission in Round 1 (+275, DraftKings)
Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado: Total rounds Under 2.5 (-115, DraftKings)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett: Fight does not go the distance (-170, DraftKings)
Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo: Maksum by decision or submission (-190, bet365)
Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue: Amorim to win by Submission in Round 1 (+380, FanDuel)
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.
