Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Biden following last week’s first presidential debate in two closely watched polls of the race.
The New York Times/Siena College survey published Wednesday showed Trump leading Biden, 81, by six percentage points (49%-43%) among likely voters — the largest lead the 45th president has enjoyed in any poll published by the outlet since 2015 — and eight points (49%-41%) among registered voters.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal showed Trump leading Biden by six points, 48%-42%, among registered voters, the biggest spread favoring the former president since at least late 2021.
Trump, 78, increased his lead over Biden by two percentage points from the last Times/Siena survey, which was published two days before the June 27 debate and showed the presumptive Republican nominee in front of his successor, 48%-44%, among likely voters.
In the WSJ poll, Trump’s lead over Biden grew by four percentage points from the last survey taken in late February, which showed the former president ahead of the incumbent by two points, 47%-45%.
The Biden campaign had been anticipating bad news from the Times/Siena poll, releasing an internal memo Wednesday morning describing the survey as an “outlier” in a bid to quiet calls from some Democrats for the president to end his bid for a second term following his confused and strange behavior onstage.
In the Times/Siena poll of registered voters, Trump led Biden in every age bracket except for those 65 and older. The former president also led among Hispanic registered voters by nine percentage points (50%-41%) and independent voters by double-digits (47%-37%)
Most alarmingly for the White House, 74% of registered voters said they either strongly or somewhat agreed that Biden “is just too old to be an effective president” while only 42% said the same of Trump.
In the WSJ poll, 80% of registered voters said Biden was too old to run for president, while 56% said the same of Trump.
Six in 10 registered voters told the Times that Biden should not be the party’s nominee for president, with self-identified Democrats almost evenly split on the question (48% saying he should be the nominee, 47% saying he should not). Notably, the poll did not ask respondents who they thought would or should replace the president on the Democratic ticket.
In addition, more than half of registered voters (58%) said Biden had “made the country worse” since taking office in January 2021, while Trump actually came out ahead on the same question about his term — with 47% saying he left America better off for his presidency and 46% said he had made matters worse.
In the WSJ poll, Trump fared nine points better than his successor on the job approval question, with 39% saying they liked Biden’s performance and 48% saying they appreciated what the Republican did in his four years in office.
The Times/Siena poll showed Biden’s job approval rating to be just 34% among registered voters, matching the president’s favorability rating in the WSJ survey.
Trump also dominated in reviews of the debate, with 60% of registered voters telling the Times/Siena poll that he had outperformed Biden and just 22% saying that Biden had come out on top.
Just 16% of voters said Biden had performed “well” in the debate, with 51% giving Trump’s performance a thumbs-up.
In the WSJ poll, 58% said Trump “won” the debate, while only 8% said Biden had triumphed.
When third-party candidates were included in the Times/Siena survey, Trump still led Biden by seven percentage points among registered voters, 40%-33%. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 10% support, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein (2%) and Libertarian Chase Oliver (1%).
Trump also led Biden by six in the five-way WSJ poll (42%-36%), followed by Kennedy (7%), Stein (2%), independent Cornel West (2%), and Oliver (1%).
Despite the alarming slippage in the polls, Biden has maintained that he will stay in the race. On Wednesday, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Biden is “absolutely not” stepping aside for another candidate.
The NYT/ Siena College poll was conducted via phone June 28-July 2 and surveyed 1,532 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8% percentage points.
The Wall Street Journal poll surveyed 1,500 registered voters June 29-July 2. Its margin of error is plus-or-minus 2.5 percentage points.
