Republicans are finally in the homestretch of passing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act through Congress after months of intense negotiations and legislative work.
The Senate voted 51-49 late Saturday to proceed with the megabill, kicking off a lengthy procedural process to eventually pass it as soon as Monday if GOP leadership can keep enough Republicans on board.
Once the megabill clears the Senate, it will head back to the House, where it needs to pass the lower chamber again before it can land on President Trump’s desk for his signature.
President Trump and GOP leaders have imposed a deadline to get the bill signed on the Fourth of July. However, even the commander in chief — who has worked hard to whip his narrow majority into passing the legislation, admitted in a Fox News interview Sunday that timeline may not be possible.
The bill does have a hard deadline — the debt ceiling which is set to be reached in August or September, according to estimates. The bill must be passed by then in order to raise the US government’s borrowing limit, currently set at $36.1 trillion.
Here is what will happen between now and then:
Reading of the bill
Democrats have very limited options to stop Republicans from wrangling the megabill through the Senate. But there are things they can do to slow down the process.
One of them is the “reading of the bill,” which Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) forced. That process involved Senate clerks reading the roughly 940-page bill out loud on the chamber floor.
That process is time-consuming and was expected to wrap up sometime by midday Sunday.
Notably, Democrats essentially can’t stop the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act if Republicans have the votes for it, because the GOP is leveraging the reconciliation process, which allows them to circumvent the 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster.
The reconciliation process is complex and significantly limits the types of legislation Republicans can include in the legislative bundle. However, it does permit the GOP to pass it with a simple majority. Republicans have a 53-to-47 majority in the Senate.
Debate
Next, the Senate will debate the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which could take up to about 20 hours. Those 20 hours can be evenly split between both Dems and Republicans.
Democrats are likely to use all of their time to bash the cuts of Medicaid and green energy subsidies, which Republicans are using to help offset some of the spending.
Republicans are expected to use some of their time to tout the bill’s accomplishments like hiring more border agents and funding ICE deportation raids. GOP senators might choose not use their full time in order to expedite the process.
Vote-a-rama
From there, the Senate will hold a “vote-a-rama,” in which senators will go through a flurry of amendments on the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
One closely watched amendment from Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) would lower the Federal Medical Assistance Percentage (FMAP), which determines the percentage of Medicaid costs covered by Uncle Sam.
Scott’s amendment would lower FMAP for able-bodied, childless adults. The amendment has been used to win over fiscal hawks such as Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who had threatened to vote against the megabill due to concerns about the deficit.
Recently, Senate amendment votes have ranged from about 9 to 15 hours.
Passing the Senate
Once all that is completed, the Senate will hold a vote on the bill itself. This could come as soon as midday Monday.
Critically, Republicans don’t necessarily have all 50 votes needed for it — yet.
While there was a 51-49 vote to proceed with consideration of Trump’s marquee legislative bundle, that doesn’t mean all those Republicans will ultimately back it.
In addition to the two who voted against proceeding, Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), there are a handful, including as Sens. Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), who could turn against it.
Their votes may depend on which amendments that get tacked onto the megabill.
Republicans can only afford to lose three votes if there’s full attendance. In the event of a 50-50 tie, Vice President JD Vance will cast the tiebreaker.
Passing the House
After the One Big Beautiful Bill Act clears the Senate, it will head back to the House for consideration.
House Republicans passed the megabill back in May, but because the Senate has since overhauled it, the measure will need to clear the lower chamber again.
Several House Republicans, including as fiscal hawks and blue-state moderates, have expressed reservations about several changes the Senate made.
The Senate version of the bill is stingier on tax breaks for workers and individuals — offering lower income cutoffs for tax breaks on tips and overtime, and setting the state and local tax deduction (SALT) limit to reduce from $40,000 to $10,000 by 2030.
But, estimates say that it will increase the deficit more, thanks to much more generous business tax cuts; cuts on business research and development spending are permanent in the Senate version, where the House version only cuts R&D taxes through 2029. The House version also raises the rate for pass-through business owner income to 23%, while the Senate version keeps it at the current 20%.
If House Republicans decide to tinker with the legislative bundle again, the two chambers may have to head into a conference committee to reconcile the differences.
GOP leadership appears keen on avoiding that, which could cause a significant delay.
Trump signs it
Finally, after the two chambers of Congress greenlight the measure, it will head to Trump’s desk for his signature.
It could happen by Friday — but it could take until next week.
Congress is scheduled to break for recess to mark the Fourth of July — Trump’s deadline. Oftentimes, leadership likes to hold tough votes before recess in order to maximize pressure on members to come on board.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has blamed the delays in passing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act for the GOP’s drubbing in the 2018 midterm elections. His thinking is that passing the megabill on a timely basis will boost Republican prospects in the midterm elections.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act was Trump’s signature legislative achievement of his first term and was passed via the reconciliation process. Similarly, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is intended to be Trump’s signature legislative achievement of his second term.
Republicans have left the door open to pursuing additional reconciliation bills in the future while they maintain a grip on the political trifecta.
