Pro-Trump Sen. Ted Cruz is warning that the president’s steep and dramatic tariff increases against virtually every country on the planet could usher in a political “bloodbath” for Republicans in the 2026 cycle.
Cruz (R-Texas), 54, said the suite of tariffs could spark a global trade war and ultimately a recession that risks Republicans losing control of even the Senate despite a somewhat favorable map.
“I’m seeing a lot of Republican cheerleaders reflexively defending what the White House is doing,” Cruz said on his “Verdict” podcast Friday, noting that a trade war “would destroy jobs here at home and do real damage to the US economy.”
“If we go into a recession, particularly a bad recession, 2026, in all likelihood politically, would be a bloodbath,” Cruz said. “You would face a Democrat House, and you might even face a Democrat Senate.”
Cruz admitted that he’s “not a fan” of tariffs and hoped that Trump’s move is merely a negotiating ploy.
“A hundred years ago, the US economy didn’t have the leverage to have the kind of impact we do now. But I worry, there are voices within the administration that want to see these tariffs continue forever and ever,” he said.
Unlike a century ago during the trade war sparked by the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, the US has become a net importer, which some backers of Trump’s plan believe gives America significant leverage this time around. That’s because countries may struggle to find sufficient demand for their goods and services elsewhere.
Cruz recounted a conversation he had with an American car manufacturer who said prices are estimated to go up by an average of $4,500 by June. The senators explained that he views tariffs as a tax on consumers.
The Lone Star State Republican joins a growing chorus of GOPers jittery over Trump’s dramatic protectionist shift. Cruz warned that an economy in freefall would be detrimental politically.
“If we’re in the middle of a recession and people are hurting badly, they punish the party in power,” Cruz contended, arguing that tariffs won’t create “a booming economy.”
Republicans have a threadbare majority in the House of Representatives. According to recent history, the party in power loses control of the lower chamber during the first midterm election.
In the Senate, where the GOP has a 53-47 seat majority, Republicans have only two vulnerable seats. Democrats have also faced a handful of retirements in Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire, leading to GOP hopes that they can hold onto the upper chamber.
“Look, I want this to succeed,” Cruz said of the Trump tariff move. “But my definition of succeed may be different than the White House’s.”
Cruz’s version of success would be “dramatically lower tariffs abroad and result in dramatically lowering tariffs here.
“That’s success for the American workers, American businesses, American growth, American prosperity,” he said.
Last week, Republican Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) voted to overturn Trump’s tariffs against Canada.
Later in the week, Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) introduced legislation alongside Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) to claw back the president’s powers on tariffs.
There are now at least half a dozen Republican senators backing that legislation.
Still, the measure is a far cry away from the level of support it would need to override an all-but-certain veto from Trump.
