Thanks to President Trump’s new truce with Beijing, US farmers will ship tens of millions of tons of soybeans to China — but analysts warn the deal may have come too late to rescue this season’s crop.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons annually for each of the next three years.
The commitment was announced after Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in South Korea — their first face-to-face in six years — to de-escalate trade tensions.
Bessent, who farms soybeans himself, told Fox Business the deal marks a “reset” that will make farmers “extremely happy.”
Still, US soybean prices dipped Thursday as traders questioned whether the renewed Chinese shipments would come soon enough to prevent a glut of the crop from piling up in storage before South American harvests hit the market early next year.
“China will likely switch back to Brazil in late winter or early spring when that crop comes on the market, but hopefully return to the US in fall 2026,” said Joseph Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute.
China typically shifts to cheaper Brazilian and Argentine soybeans by late February, meaning the US window to ship new orders is narrow, he explained.
Analysts also cautioned that Beijing’s multi-year pledges may be difficult to enforce.
“[It’s] unclear as to the enforceability of the agreement since we haven’t seen the text,” said Glauber, a former USDA chief.
With some details of the soybean deal unclear, Arlan Suderman of StoneX Financial said Bessent’s 12-million-ton figure likely applies only through January.
It’s also not known whether the tonnage represents new business or a restatement of existing sales, Suderman noted.
If the deal only generates six million metric tons of new business, “ending stocks (the amount of soybeans left over in US supply at the end of a marketing year) could reach nearly 500 million bushels, arguing for lower cash prices,” stated Suderman, StoneX’s chief commodities economist.
Glauber remarked that the truce may offer limited relief for this crop year.
“The announced 12 million metric ton volume for 2025 will help, but it remains far below ‘normal’ trade levels,” he said.
“The 25 million ton targets for 2026 and 2027 are near recent levels but still significantly below trade over the past five years.”
Glauber said the timing of China’s buying spree will be crucial.
“It is still relatively early in the marketing year,” he said.
“Farmers have been holding onto grain in hopes of a deal with China. I would expect soybeans to start moving to market, particularly with the increase in prices.”
This week’s new US-China agreement includes tariff reductions, a pause on rare earth export restrictions and Beijing’s promise to tighten controls on chemicals used to make fentanyl.
The US agreed to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods by 10% — to 47% — while suspending plans for an additional 100% levy.
The renewed soybean trade reverses months of hostility that halted Chinese purchases and battered US farm exports. In August, Beijing sourced a record 12.2 million tons of soybeans from Brazil, according to data from the Rosario Board of Trade.
Analysts predicted that China would end the 2024–25 season with more than 100 million tons of total imports — leaving it temporarily oversupplied.
The White House’s agreement comes amid mounting political pressure from farm states that have been hit hardest by the trade war.
Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, has repeatedly cast himself as an advocate for rural producers, telling CBS earlier this week that he “felt the pain” as a soybean farmer himself.
For now, experts are taking a wait-and-see approach to the new soybean agreement.
China’s 25-million-ton annual commitment represents less than the 58% of promised imports the country fulfilled under the 2020 “Phase One” accord, according to Suderman, who said “cautious optimism” is warranted only if Beijing follows through.
Suderman predicted China would use the agreement to “significantly build its reserves” with US beans while maintaining long-term reliance on South American suppliers.
“Brazilian soybeans are not allowed into China’s reserves,” he said, “so this is China’s opportunity to build the reserves once and for all.”
Still, traders say the truce gives the US breathing room as biofuel demand grows and domestic processors absorb more of the soybean crop.
The deal covers US grain sorghum, a “win for Plains farmers,” said Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins. Leaders did not share the tonnage of sorghum involved.
The final text of the Trump–Xi agreement is expected to be signed next week.
Glauber said traders should watch Gulf and Pacific Northwest port inspections and the US Department of Agriculture’s weekly export sales reports — “presuming the current funding impasse is solved” — to gauge whether shipments are picking up.
Trump told reporters his meeting with Xi was “a 12 out of 10,” while Bessent said the framework will “restore balance” to agricultural markets.
