The line tends to gravitate toward a Power 4 against a Group of Five team in a bowl game, especially when the latter has lost its coach.
In Tuesday’s Boca Raton Bowl, we’ve got ourselves a pair of 8-4 programs in Louisville and Toledo.
The Cardinals capped off their season with a 41-0 smackdown over Kentucky, but lost three of their last four against unranked opponents in an underwhelming campaign amongst the ACC.
Toledo drilled its way to four straight wins, ending the year tied for second in the MAC. The Rockets boast one of the most disruptive units in the country, yielding just 267.3 yards of offense per game; that ranks fifth overall.
Instead of opting out of playing in a bowl game, Toledo is holding its head high after Jason Candle departed for UConn.
Their pass rush, led by the ferocious duo of Martez Poynter and Malachi Davis, collected a nation-leading 5.7 sacks per game in the Rockets’ final three games. This relentless pressure has really come out in the wash in preventing third-down conversions down the stretch.
Their ability to control gaps and force quarterbacks into hurried throws has yielded only 4.7 third-down conversions in the last three games and a 28.9 percent overall clip.
That should play favorably against the Cardinals, who have gotten some wacky quarterback play from Miller Moss. The fifth-year transfer finished with an underwhelming seven interceptions to 14 touchdown ratio.
Vegas has them laying 6.5 points on the Rockets, but considering both teams average over 30 minutes of ball possession, I’m not projecting the pace of play to allow much leeway. That can only benefit the Rockets, who thrive when they can dictate flow.
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Candle’s departure is also overshadowing some key absences for the Cardinals due to injuries and opt-outs, including wide receiver Chris Bell and key defensive linemen Rene Konga and Wesley Bailey.
Lest we forget, an underappreciated experience factor for Toledo, which is about to play in its 16th consecutive bowl game.
It was only a year ago that the Rockets prevailed in a six-overtime game against another ACC team in Pittsburgh.
I’m comfortable betting against the public grain here.
THE PICK: Toledo +6.5 (-105, bet365)
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Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.
