The Thunder may have physically been there in Minnesota, but they left their spirit in Oklahoma City.
After getting annihilated in Game 3, 143-101, sportsbooks are expecting Oklahoma City to arrive on Monday night, with BetMGM posting them as -2.5-point favorites.
Minnesota can do something that the Denver Nuggets cannot: defend the perimeter at a high level.
Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker would all be the best perimeter defenders on the Nuggets for their defensive prowess alone.
Add in Rudy Gobert and a motivated Julius Randle defending the midrange baskets, and we could have a defensive stalemate on our hands in Minnesota.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 prediction
Oklahoma City is a wagon in terms of team construction; they’re loaded from top to bottom.
The question is whether the Timberwolves have found something with their defensive adjustments, which include McDaniels guarding Shai Gilgeous-Alexander straight up while Gobert gets extended minutes.
My betting model has plenty of edges on this game, with my projected score for Monday being 110.14 to 104.83 in favor of the Thunder.
That gives us a marginal value on the spread (2.72 percent) in favor of the Thunder.
The total comes in at 219.5, about five points higher than my model’s projection.
Bet on the Thunder -2.5 in this game and the under 219.5 at a 6.59 percent edge.
Betting on the NBA?
Feel free to grab a reverse correlation same-game-parlay, paying 2.6-to-1.
PICK: Thunder -2.5 (-115) | Under 219.5 (-110, BetMGM) | SGP (+260, DraftKings)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
