It’s a week-to-week league.
Last week, we missed Drake Maye’s passing total (+320) by 7 yards. Still, we profited on the week when we landed the plane on Davante Adams to score a touchdown (+180).
The 2-2 showing profited us 0.71 units and brought us to 6-14 on the year, while still being down a bit 3.39 units.
Accountability is everything in this business. Here are some Week 4 props:
Bijan Robinson Under 17.5 rushing attempts (+100, BetMGM)
Robinson is a superstar, to be clear, but he has only surpassed this total once this season. Sure, the Falcons would project to have a strong chance at a positive game script playing against Marcus Mariota and the Commanders. But I would caution anyone who thinks this game will be a rout.
This one feels like Tyler Allgeier siphoning off some carries from Robinson, who also will operate as a lead receiver like usual. In the Falcons’ lone win, Allgeier took 33% of snaps for the Falcons.
Darius Slayton Over 1.5 receptions (-111, DraftKings); Over 2.5 (+400, Fanatics); Over 3.5 (+750, DraftKings)
The sportsbooks undervalue Slayton far too much. He hauled in four catches last week despite his total coming in at 1.5. Jaxson Dart starts for Big Blue, and I don’t see that as a negative for Slayton.
“I’m doing everything I can to build chemistry with my teammates, especially Malik and Darius,” Dart told The Post’s Paul Schwartz on Thursday.” We’re putting in the work to make sure we’re on the same page.”
Slayton played 97% and 99% of snaps for the Giants in Weeks 1 and 2, while slightly dropping off to 76% in Week 3.
Dart views Slayton as a key cog in their offense, both as a veteran leader and a reliable player he can lean on. This was a spot that I hammered last week, and will revisit in Week 4.
Matthew Golden Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM); Over 99.5 (+650, Fanatics)
It is Golden’s week to put on a show against a putrid Cowboys defense. Golden plays mostly outside with insane 4.3 speed that will keep any defensive coordinator up at night.
Well, Golden is getting a wild 28% target per route run rate against two-high coverage, which the Cowboys play 54.2% of the time (10th most, data via Derek Brown Fantasy Football Pros). He’s also the first read on 38.5% of those plays.
Betting on the NFL?
The Cowboys also have allowed the most PPR fantasy points per target to perimeter receivers in the NFL.
We’re targeting all of Golden’s Overs we can get our hands on. The rookie wideout should have had a 90-yard touchdown last week, but foolishly didn’t have his eyes downfield and instead opted to run out of bounds on the play.
The Golden breakout is coming, and the Cowboys won’t be able to contain this playmaker.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
