With polls showing Vice President Harris and former President Trump locked in a dead heat as the 2024 race for the White House enters its final hours, the fate of the nation will turn on seven battleground states.
These swing states have a combined 93 electoral votes.
Some are longtime pillars of the so-called Democratic “blue wall,” which Trump demolished in 2016. Others are staples of the Republican coalition President Biden clawed away in 2020.
With no pandemic, there will be fewer mail-in ballots this year — which could yield a winner much sooner than in 2020, when the race was called for Biden four days after the election.
Here’s a look at each of the critical swing states:
PENNSYLVANIA
The Keystone State — and its 19 electoral votes — is the crown jewel. After being locked in Democratic hands for a generation, Trump narrowly won the state in 2016 by 44,292 votes, while Biden snatched it back in 2020 by a little more than 80,000 votes.
Trump was shot here in an assassination attempt that shook the presidential race.
Results here could be the latest in the nation, due to a quirk in state law requiring election officials to wait until 7 a.m on Election Day to begin counting mailed ballots.
Though polls have been a statistical dead head, Republicans are bullish.
“More than 21% of all Republicans who have voted so far did not vote in any of the last three elections. This is a higher percentage than the number of low-propensity Democrats voting,” said Ryan Girdusky, a GOP political consultant. “But most concerning for Democrats is the big decrease of voters in Philadelphia.”
MICHIGAN
This longtime Democratic bastion fell to former President Trump’s 2016 electoral wave, but moved back into the blue for President Biden in 2020.
Vice President Harris will look to squeeze every last vote from large Democratic cities like Detroit, while allies of former President Trump are looking to turn out more red-leaning suburbs and run up the score in the swings areas of Kent County and Grand Rapids.
“The best information we have at the moment is that Michigan is a dead heat,” Nicholas Valentino, a University of Michigan political scientist, told McClatchy News.
But Trump had an edge here, he said. “If the polls here are biased in the same way as 2016 and 2020, even not quite as much, Trump will win the state.”
WISCONSIN
The third “blue wall” state Trump won from Democrats in 2016 and Biden reclaimed four years later, is up for grabs again.
Republicans in the Badger State hope to juice turnout with a ballot measure to amend its constitution to ban noncitizens from voting in state elections.
While noncitizens are barred from federal elections, a growing numbers of municipalities — including New York City — are exploring the possibility of their voting in local contests.
Team Harris will also be dragged down by far-left fringe candidates who are still on the ballot in Wisconsin this year, including Jill Stein, Cornell West and Claudia De la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation.
ARIZONA
This longtime Republican stronghold infamously slipped past Trump in 2020. Democrats are looking to hold on.
“I think Arizona is going to squeak out a win for Trump but by less than expected,” said Meghan McCain, the daughter of the late Arizona Sen. John McCain, who said the state’s high number of independent and libertarian voters will carry the day.
Trump’s margin of victory will be slimmer as a result of GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake, McCain said, adding she thought Lake would go down to defeat by six to eight points.
Dems are feeling bullish down-ballot, with an abortion-related measure they hope will galvanize their voters. Democrats are also attempting to win control of both houses of the state legislature, something unseen in Arizona since 1966.
NORTH CAROLINA
Democrats have only won the Tarheel state twice since 1968; Barack Obama in 2008 in his blowout victory, and Jimmy Carter in 1976.
The state’s continued recovery from the devastation of Hurricane Helene complicates logistics for both parties as they seek to get their voters to the polls. But Democrats are feeling confident.
Polls have tightened considerably in the state since President Biden left the race, and Republicans will be weighed down by the presence of Mark Robinson, the widely unpopular GOP gubernatorial candidate accused last month of defending slavery and declaring himself a “Black Nazi” on a pornographic website.
NEVADA
The Silver State has been safe Democratic territory for a generation. With only six electoral votes, it is the smallest prize of the swing states, though neither side was taking it for granted: both Trump and Harris made multiple stops here.
Democrats are banking on a ballot measure to enshrine abortion rights in the Nevada constitution to help push their voters to the polls. A similar measure that would require voters to show photo identification is also on the ballot, which is expected to help turn out Republicans.
Nevada is historically a bellwether state for presidential elections. In 27 of the last 30 races, the winner of Nevada has gone on to the White House. The state only backed the losing candidate in 1908, 1976 and in 2016 when Hillary Clinton won there.
GEORGIA
The Peach State has been a bitter pill for Republicans in recent years. Once a GOP bastion, in 2020 it swung to President Biden and voters replaced both Republicans senators for Democrats.
Bad blood over the state’s voting processes led to a rift between Trump and Georgia’s GOP leaders, Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. The relations have never fully healed.
Trump’s effort to overturn the results in Georgia additionally sparked a criminal case in Fulton County which remains ongoing. The case has been stalled after revelations that District Attorney Fani Willis was having an affair with prosecutor Nathan Wade.
Like North Carolina, Georgia is also digging out from the devastation of Hurricane Helene, which may complicate turnout.
“We are always running as if as if we are a point behind which I think is the best strategy, but our analysis of the data from early voting shows that Georgia is resoundingly strong for President Trump,” said Bill White, a top Trump campaign surrogate with longtime ties to the state.
