SAN ANTONIO — There are two ways this Yankee offseason goes, the one where they retain Juan Soto and the one where they do not.
Keeping Soto would make the Yankee winter relatively uncomplicated. He would be the luxury item and centerpiece of what I suspect would be a then otherwise unspectacular offseason unless 1) the Chiba Lotte Marines post ace Roki Sasaki and 2) the Yankees win for the ace righty who turned 23 on Sunday.
Because Sasaki is under 25, he can only sign a minor league contract, so is affordable to any club. And prices will matter with the Yankees, especially if they are shoehorning Soto back onto the ledger.
Their payroll for luxury tax purposes in 2024 was roughly $315 million, which will bring a tax bill of around $60 million. Hal Steinbrenner has said that this payroll level is unsustainable for the Yankees.
Let’s leave it for another time to discuss if the Yankees should be running payrolls like this or higher. This is about what the owner wants and it seems like he would like to get the payroll down to $300 million and preferably under the top tax tier of $291 million. That would make it difficult to have Soto and much more from the outside, unless they find a way to unload a sizable contract.
FanGraphs currently had the Yankees at a $245 million projection for tax purposes in 2025, a figure that assumed the Yankees would add a year to Gerrit Cole’s existing deal before the Monday night deadline. But that includes arbitration guesstimates for Trent Grisham, who seems a near certain trade or non-tender, and also questionable players to tender in Jon Berti, J.T. Brubaker and Tim Mayza.
Still, even with pruning, if you assume Soto is receiving no less than $40 million annually and could get to $50 million or more, that would take the Yankees to close to the $291 million top tax level. This would accentuate the need to go inexpensive in as many other areas as possible.
It is why I think two of the main pieces of their offseason agenda need to be upgrading the defense of Jasson Dominguez and the offense of Oswald Peraza. If the Yanks truly want us to believe that they prioritize fundamentals – not just that they check boxes – then asking Dominguez to be part of the early group that returns to the minor league complex well before spring training is imperative. The Yankees have to drill Dominguez regularly on defense and not just check boxes with flyballs, etc. They need to be working at real speed on game situations and emphasizing how vital it is that Dominguez do more than hit.
And the Yankees need to get Peraza to use the whole field and become a better overall hitter so he can at least inexpensively replace Berti – if not more.
As for Soto, there is not a big sales job to do. He is probably the best at-bat in the world due to his incredible strike-zone control. Then add in that in 2024 he proved he could thrive in New York and furthered the point that he is an elite postseason performer. He also just turned 26 during the World Series.
Soto’s return would create a structural problem for the three years that Giancarlo Stanton has left on his contract as the DH because it means that Soto is in right and Aaron Judge remains in center entering his age-33 season. That only alleviates with the annual injury or two Stanton endures to open up the DH role for stretches or if Judge or Soto begins to take on some first base responsibilities.
But Soto’s bat is worth the more difficult defensive jigsaw puzzle. Soto would have every right to ask for a 14-year contract to be paid through 39 like Judge and/or more per year than Shohei Ohtani’s record luxury tax figure of $46.08 million (calculated with deferrals on his 10-year, $700 Dodger pact). Fourteen years at $658 million accomplishes both. But Soto can seek to be the first $50 million a year player with no deferrals or get to $700 million with no deferrals. I remember that when his agent Scott Boras had a mid-twenties star like this in Alex Rodriguez after the 2000 season and conspicuously doubled the then largest North American team sport record of $126 million for Kevin Garnett with a 10-year, $252 million pact with the Rangers. I would not be shocked – for symbolic value – if they shot for $720 million … or double Judge’s $360 million.
There are going to be a lot of interested teams, but the big concern for the Yankees has to be about the Mets. If Steve Cohen decides this is a piece of baseball art he can not live without, then I suspect that Steinbrenner will tap out before the Mets owner. If the Mets are not quite that gung-ho, then the Yanks’ path to retention becomes clearer. Maybe Soto will return West if the Giants offer big dollars or go to Canada for the Blue Jays. But I do sense he wants to be a historic player and that is easier in New York and especially with the Yankees.
That doesn’t mean a discount because of the roll call or liking the large Dominican population in New York that has embraced him. But it does help the Yankee effort. Every stadium is built well for someone as offensively special as Soto, but Yankee Stadium particularly fits him for both power and average. Though anyone who thinks his career-high 41 homers were short-porch derived, know that more than half (21) came on the road.
He had a 1.017 on the road and .990 at home; .999 vs. righties/.996 vs. lefties; .985 in the first half/.995 in the second; 1.142 with runners in scoring position; and 1.101 in the postseason. He had 10 postseason plate appearances with runners in scoring position and reached in seven of them – that includes hitting the pennant-winning three-run homer in ALCS Game 5.
Again, he is an easy sell. For the Yankees, he is probably worth going to an uncomfortable place financially because 1) it might cost more to try to replace his offense with multiple players than just figure a way back to him, 2) the combo of elite talent becoming a free agent so young is rare and you just can’t wait until next year to get another opportunity, 3) these are the Yankees and their history of the brand is to win for retaining this type of player.
And yet, the Mets are expected to be a real factor – and other teams might barge into this stratosphere as well. Steinbrenner should be taken seriously about his desire to reduce payroll. So this is no layup. It is possible that Soto goes elsewhere. We will tackle what the Yankees should do in that case in Part 2 tomorrow.
