Post sports gambling editor/producer Erich Richter is in his first season in the Bettor’s Guide.
Houston Texans (+6.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS
Sneakily the must-watch game of the week in the NFL, C.J. Stroud is coming off the best game a rookie quarterback has ever played (470 yards and five touchdowns vs. Buccaneers).
Now he matches up with Joe Burrow and the Bengals, whom we will continue to fade this week as they begin to peak in early November.
The advanced stats are not kind to the Bengals, as they profile as the fifth-worst run defense according to Pro Football Focus, along with the third-worst coverage grade.
Thanks to some positive variance in the turnover game, they are running hot, but those are fickle and should not be expected going forward.
The Texans are seventh in turnover differential this season, while Cincinnati is No. 1.
Detroit Lions (-3) over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Are you ready for the Jared Goff Show?
The Lions head into SoFi Stadium in what will be closer to a home game than a road game for them.
The Chargers allow an unsightly 286 passing yards per game, by far the worst in the NFL.
Betting on the NFL?
DVOA says L.A.’s run defense is just as bad, ranking 20th in rush DVOA, slightly better than its pass defense (21st).
The Lions are fourth in total DVOA, signaling an elite team facing a sputtering mid-tier contender on a short week. Back Detroit here.
Last week: 0-2. Bills (L), Falcons (L)
2023 season: 6-11-1.