Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 2024 campaign never got the traction some might have expected given his famous name and ability to get earned media.
But now that the effort is suspended, the maverick politician may end up playing a pivotal role between now and November — particularly in battleground states.
That’s the case made by Chris LaCivita, one of former President Donald Trump’s senior advisers, in a “confidential” memo Friday arguing that “in every single state RFK Jr.’s vote breaks for President Trump.”
“This is good news for President Trump and his campaign – plain and simple,” the veteran political consultant declares about the key states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and their 93 combined electoral votes that could swing the race for the White House if they perform in a bloc.
Among the seven battlegrounds, Nevada (with six electoral votes) is the place where RFK voters are most primed to switch to Trump now that their preferred candidate has endorsed the Republican.
A full 66% of the RFK voters in Team Trump’s “most recent round” of internal surveys back the Republican with Kennedy out of the race, while 16% say they would back Harris and the remainder claim they are undecided.
Kennedy had 4% support in Nevada according to LaCivita’s polling.
To put that number in perspective, Biden won the state by 2.39% in 2020.
Though Nevada offers the most striking example of an exodus to Trump, it’s not the only one according to the Trump operation’s calculations.
Trump won North Carolina in 2016 and 2020; but a recent poll showed Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of Trump in the race for the state’s 16 electoral votes on the strength of the Democratic National Convention showcase.
The LaCivita numbers suggest Kennedy voters, who make up 3% of the Tar Heel State electorate, are also moving over to the Trump column.
With Kennedy out of the race, 58% of his backers say they will switch to Trump, against just 22% moving to Harris. An additional 21% say they are undecided.
Wisconsin, whose 10 electoral votes Biden won by 0.63% four years ago, is yet another state where Kennedy backers moving to Trump could make the difference in November.
RFK had 4% support according to the internal polling, and the former oresident is poised to get 55% of those voters, with 25% likely to back Harris and 20% undecided.
If Trump gets all the undecided voters, that’s good for a 2% gain in his vote share. If he’d had that cushion in 2020, he would have carried the state.
Arizona, where Kennedy announced his withdrawal from the race, is another state where Trump disproportionately benefits from RFK’s exit and the dispersal of his support, measured at 5%.
The former president takes 53% support, with Harris at 28% and 19% undecided.
Biden won the state’s 11 electoral votes by 0.3% — or fewer than 11,000 votes — in 2020. LaCivita notes that “the net vote gained in a state like Arizona based on just a 2020 turnout model would be over 41,000 votes, nearly 4 times Biden’s winning margin.”
In Pennsylvania and Georgia, where Biden won 35 electoral votes by narrow margins four years ago, a similar scenario plays out with somewhat less intensity.
Trump leads Harris with RFK voters 49% to 35% in the Keystone State and 47% to 34% in the Peach State. Kennedy was at 4% in Pennsylvania and 3% in Georgia, where LaCivita observes “the net gain would be over 19,000 votes, nearly twice Biden’s margin.”
The only state where RFK voters look likely to break evenly according to the Trump internal poll is Michigan, where Harris takes 43% of Kennedy voters and the 45th president (appropriately enough) takes 45%. Fifteen electoral votes are up for grabs in the Wolverine State.
If Trump sweeps all seven of these states, he has a pathway to 312 electoral votes. While it’s premature to allocate all Kennedy’s voters to the Republican column, the reality is if RFK Jr. can deliver them, the man from Mar-a-Lago is headed back to DC.
