Oddsmakers dislike injuries, which present numerous unknowns.
They much prefer every team at full strength because power ratings account for that. But they don’t know the true power rating of a short-handed team because of the small sample size of those scenarios.
The flip side is that bettors can capitalize on these opportunities, if they understand the domino effect of an injury better than those creating the odds.
The Phoenix Suns visit the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday night as 10-point underdogs, with a total of 233.5 points.
Grayson Allen returned to the lineup in Phoenix’s last game after missing seven straight games with a right quad contusion.
His return moved Collin Gillespie back to the bench.
Gillespie shined as Allen’s replacement, logging at least 28 minutes in all seven games and scoring at least 15 points.
He also made at least three 3-pointers in six of them.
In his return to the reserve role, Gillespie’s minutes only slightly decreased.
Betting on the NBA?
He is still an offensive priority, leading the NBA in made 3-pointers off the bench.
Thus, I still think there is value in that regard, especially if the market assumes lower usage.
I have a 79-67-2 record in this Post sports section and my next play is Gillespie Over 2.5 made 3-pointers, which has plus-money odds at two books at the time of writing.
The Pick: Collin Gillespie Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+110, bet365)
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Doug Kezirian is a New York Post contributor who has over two decades of experience in the betting space, including spending 11 years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He’s also the rare personality who has documented success – 14th place in 2023 Circa Million and Las Vegas SuperContest ($37K), two top-10 finishes in 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58K) and also grabbed headlines with a $297K win on the 2021 NFL Draft.
