It’s easy to criticize teams when they fall short of expectations, but when they exceed everyone’s preseason projections, as the Hornets and Suns have, the praise should be just as loud.
Two of the best stories and surprises of this NBA season will face each other for the second time in 30 days, this time in Charlotte, after the Suns outlasted the Hornets in Phoenix in early March.
The Suns are almost assuredly getting a home game in the play-in tournament with six games to go and a 4 1/2-game lead over the Minnesota Timberwolves for sixth place in the Western Conference.
The Hornets are sitting in the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference and are also likely to be in the play-in tournament with two teams ahead of them.
Those factors lower the big picture stakes for this game, but these teams have been successful this season because they play like every game matters, which is a rarity in today’s league.
Oddsmakers favor the Hornets at home Thursday, listing them as 5.5-point favorites with the Over/Under settling at 225.5 points.
Suns vs. Hornets prediction, best bet
The Hornets have become the darling of the East after a tremendous mid-season turnaround.
They were 12 games under .500 in the middle of January, then ripped off a nine-game win streak to put themselves on the radar. Since the start of that streak, the Hornets have the second-best win percentage, second-best point differential and the second-best offense in the NBA.
The Hornets’ five-man unit of Lonzo Ball, Miles Bridges, Moussa Diabate, Kon Knueppel, and Brandon Miller has outscored teams by 28.7 points per 100 possessions. With that starting five, the Hornets have found the perfect balance of elite outside shooters, interior scoring and defense, and they have impressive wins over the Spurs, Celtics and Knicks during this run.
But the Suns can count themselves as one of the eight wins during that span. Their defense has been a catalyst to everything they’ve done and a lot of that was attributed to Dillon Brooks. But even after Brooks broke his hand in February, the Suns just kept winning.
While they lost some toughness on defense with Brooks out, they gained an offensive weapon with Jalen Green back in the lineup. Green has found a groove over the past 14 games, averaging 22.6 points and shooting 46 percent from the floor.
Having Green on the floor with Devin Booker gives the Suns two legitimate ball handlers who can break down the defense and find teammates or create a shot for themselves.
Betting on the NBA?
In the last game between these two teams, the Hornets struggled to contain Green and Booker, which constantly put them in rotation and opened up 3-point attempts.
On the defensive end, the Suns did a good job of staying attached to Hornets shooters and contesting as much as possible.
From a betting trends standpoint, the Suns and Hornets are the two best teams against the spread this season. Based on the previous matchup, I think the Suns can match up with them and keep this game close, so I like them to cover the 5.5-point spread.
I also like the Under here. Both teams play at a slow pace and are defensively driven. Their last game topped out at 220 points despite both teams hitting a ton of 3s.
I think we’ll see this one stay under that 225.5 total.
The Picks: Suns +5.5 (-110) | Under 225.5 (-110, Bet365)
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Malik Smith has been immersed in the sports betting industry since 2017. He’s a data nerd with a particular focus on the NBA and combat sports. He spends his weeknights in the winter looking for edges on plus-money NBA player props.
