No team in college football has been more of a roller coaster than the LSU Tigers (3-1).
Currently ranked No. 14, Brian Kelly’s team is right where it was expected to be (it was ranked 13th in the AP’s preseason poll), but the route it has taken to get here has been anything but straightforward.
LSU lost its opening game, a neutral-site contest against No. 12 USC, on a last-minute touchdown, and then responded with wins over Nicholls State, South Carolina and UCLA.
It may seem as if this three-game winning streak has righted the ship and that this Saturday’s showdown with South Alabama in Death Valley should provide another win to their ledger, but there are some red flags in the numbers that suggest the Bayou Bengals are paper tigers.
Coming into the season, it was pretty clear LSU would not be a defensive force.
The Tigers ranked 109th in yards per play allowed and 81st in points allowed per game in 2023 but were able to finish 10-3 thanks to a prolific offense led by 2024 first-round draft picks Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr.
It’s never ideal to need to outscore your defensive warts but when you have three first-round picks, including the Heisman winner, leading the way, it becomes a much more manageable puzzle to solve.
And while LSU’s offense is still terrific, it is naturally going to step back a bit in 2024.
That means there is pressure on the defense to improve, which hasn’t happened — at least not yet.
Through four games, LSU ranks 103rd in yards per play allowed and 106th in preventing plays of at least 10 yards.
The Tigers have given up more than 21 points in three of their four games, including to Nicholls State.
The most concerning effort came in a very fortunate 36-33 win at South Carolina in which the Tigers allowed 243 yards on the ground but got bailed out by some questionable officiating.
Even the most ardent LSU supporter would say the Bayou Bengals were fortunate to win that game.
South Carolina is certainly a much better team than South Alabama, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see LSU have similar issues against the Jaguars on Saturday.
While you have to be careful with South Alabama’s numbers because they scored 87 points on an FCS school two weeks ago, this does look like a potent offense.
The Jaguars overwhelmed Appalachian State, 48-10, on the road and scored 38 points in a loss to North Texas.
Betting on College Football?
Led by running back Fluff Bothwell, this team can score in a hurry and grades out as a top-10 offense in terms of explosiveness.
We usually like to back ugly underdogs that want to muck games up and keep the clock moving, but in this case we are backing an offense that can hang around with LSU and may actually give Kelly a scare.
Asking South Alabama to pull the upset as a 21-point underdog may be a bridge too far, but it’s not a bad idea to consider some other options such as sprinkling the Jaguars on the first-half moneyline.
Recommendation: South Alabama +21 (-112, DraftKings)
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