Back in the early aughts, sports bettors coined the term “Tiger Tax” to explain how bookmakers would hang some outrageously short odds on Tiger Woods to win a given golf tournament.
Woods was in the midst of one of the most dominant stretches the sport had ever seen in that era, and he was outrageously popular, so bookmakers knew they could hang essentially any price on The Big Cat and get plenty of action.
It wasn’t out of the ordinary to see Woods as a +150 favorite to win majors back in the 2000s, and bettors still couldn’t get enough of him, even at those odds.
We’re starting to see something similar with Scottie Scheffler these days.
Scheffler is a ridiculous +275 favorite to win this week’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, which means he’s closing in on Tiger Territory. A win this week and we could see the 28-year-old around +200 for the final major of the season, The Open Championship, in July.
This isn’t anything new for Scheffler, either.
He closed at roughly the same price for his last start at the Memorial and won, giving him three victories in his last four outings, including at the 2025 PGA Championship, where he was a robust +470 favorite.
Scheffler has been the chalk at each of the last 11 majors.
Given how unpredictable a golf tournament is, especially on a treacherous course like Oakmont, you’d imagine that most bettors would scoff at the notion of laying into a +275 favorite against this field.
And yet, it’s Scheffler who is clearly the most popular bet behind the window.
According to BetMGM, 17.8 percent of the bets and 31.3 percent of the money they’ve taken on the U.S. Open are on Scheffler to win.
But is this a case where bettors actually see value in the number, or are eager punters looking to back Scheffler because he’s turning into a Tiger-like phenomenon?
If you convert Scheffler’s +275 odds to implied probability, you get 26.7 percent. It’s an inexact science because of hold percentages (aka the vig), but you get the point. The betting market is essentially saying that Scheffler has a one-in-four chance of winning this tournament.
On the surface, it makes sense. Scheffler has won three of 12 events (25 percent) this season, and he went 7-for-19 in 2024, for a total of 10 wins in 31 tries over the last two years. That’s good enough for 32.3 percent, which would equate to roughly +210 odds.
Those numbers would tell you that Scheffler does have value in a vacuum, but you have to remember that this tournament will be much more difficult to win than a normal PGA Tour event.
Not only is it being played on one of the toughest courses in the country, but it also features a much tougher field thanks to the presence of LIV golfers like Bryson DeChambeau, Jon Rahm, and Joaquin Niemann.
So, perhaps to get a better idea of whether or not these odds make logical sense, you can look at Scheffler’s results in majors over the last two seasons. He has two wins (2024 Masters, 2025 PGA Championship) in six starts, which puts him at 33.3 percent.
Once again, Scheffler’s recent performances back up his price this week.
Most seasoned golf bettors will tell you that betting a +275 favorite in this kind of setup is ludicrous, and they can certainly make a valid argument, but so, too, can casual gamblers who are going to make one bet this week.
They’ll tell you it’s not that difficult – just bet the guy who wins all the time.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
