The Stanley Cup Final rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers may be just two games old, but it has already delivered on the hype.
Game 1 was extraordinary, with the teams exchanging early leads before the Oilers stormed back from 3-1 down to win, 4-3, thanks to a Leon Draisaitl game-winning goal in overtime.
Not to be outdone, Game 2 featured five goals in the first period and a last-gasp game-tying goal from 40-year-old Corey Perry, but it was for naught as hockey’s best heel, Brad Marchand, scored on a breakaway in double-overtime to send the series to Florida tied, 1-1.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 3 betting preview
After earning the split in Edmonton, the Panthers are now priced as the favorites to win the Stanley Cup, though the odds are extremely tight.
Florida is -118 at FanDuel Sportsbook, which is essentially where the Oilers were ahead of Game 1.
In other words, the series started as a coin flip, and it remains one after two games.
And it’s not just the odds that are tight; the tale of the tape through nearly nine periods shows us that there’s really nothing that separates these two heavyweights.
The Oilers and Panthers have split 16 goals evenly through two games, though the Cats have outscored the Oil, 5-4, at 5-on-5.
Both teams have a pair of power-play goals, but Florida also added a short-handed goal in Game 2.
Things only get tighter from there, as the two teams are separated by 0.01 expected goals (xG) at 5-on-5, per Natural Stat Trick.
Florida has created 7.03 xG at full strength, while Edmonton has generated 7.02.
Getting any separation in this series will be tough, as both teams have proven to be unflappable in big moments.
Betting on the NHL?
Considering how tight things have been through the first two contests, it is a bit surprising to see Florida getting some love from the bookies for Game 3.
Edmonton closed as a -125 favorite in Game 1, and Game 2 was a pick’em, but the Panthers are sitting at -140 for Game 3.
Ignoring Game 2 because the series scoreline impacted the market for that game (bettors tend to back the team down 1-0 in a best-of-7 when it’s supposed to be close), we’re seeing a 65-cent shift from Game 1 to Game 3.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 3 pick
That seems like a bit much, and puts value on the Oilers on the moneyline on Monday night.
And while I will be backing Edmonton, that isn’t my favorite bet on the board.
Jake Walman has been superb for the Oilers for the entire playoffs, but he’s got more to give offensively.
The smooth-skating defenseman doesn’t log a ton of minutes, but he’s making the most of his ice-time with 31 shots this postseason, including seven through the first two games of this series.
It was Walman’s shot that rebounded to Perry for his tying goal with less than 20 seconds left in the game.
Kris Knoblauch is not afraid to send Walman over the boards in big moments, when the Oilers need a goal, and I think he’s great value to find the back of the net in Game 3.
Walman is 15/1 to score a goal on Monday night, and he’s a whopping 85/1 to be the first goalscorer.
THE PLAY: Oilers (+126, Caesars Sportsbook) | Jake Walman to score a goal (15/1, BetMGM)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
