Predicting the outcome of Round 1 of the NFL draft has become big business.
Every major media outlet has at least one expert who specializes in mock drafts, and some spend the entire year adjusting their predictions.
But the reality is that, when the show starts, nobody knows what will happen next.
This is why bookmakers despise setting the market for the NFL draft.
You can do your best to prepare, but there are always a couple of bombshells during Round 1 that throw everything off script.
And while nobody saw the Jaguars trading up to No. 2 to draft Travis Hunter coming, there were some savvy punters out there who put the pieces together on the Panthers’ surprising move to draft wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth pick.
McMillan was a 13/1 long shot to go to the Panthers at No. 8 at ESPN Bet all day Thursday, but they were slashed to +150 right before the draft started.
Somebody, somewhere, knew what the Panthers were up to and waited until the very last moment to pounce.
DraftKings reported it took a $300 bet on McMillan to be picked eighth overall at 12/1 odds, netting the bettor a tidy $3,600.
There was some interesting betting activity surrounding McMillan throughout the week, with the Cowboys and Jaguars being co-favorites to land his services, despite being separated by seven picks in Round 1.
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The market seemed to indicate that the Jaguars would entertain the idea of trading down, perhaps with the Bears at No. 10, and grabbing McMillan there before the Cowboys could do so at No. 12.
But in the end, it wasn’t the mock draft experts nor the bookies who had this one nailed. It was some shrewd bettors who played their cards just right.
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan, but a long-profiting sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the gambling industry. He loves using game theory to help punters win bracket pools, find long shots, and learn how to beat the market in mainstream and niche sports.
