The Post’s Erich Richter makes his picks for Sunday and Monday’s NFL Wild Card Weekend.
SUNDAY
JAGUARS +1.5 over Bills
Tough draw here for the Bills, who will need Josh Allen to basically be Superman in order for his squad to advance past the Wild Card round this week.
Jacksonville is the better all-around team here and is playing much better at this point. They’re ranked No. 6 overall in FTN’s DVOA, with a highly rated defense ranked No. 6. The Jaguars are No. 4 against the run, which is Buffalo’s backbone behind rushing champion James Cook.
Defensive Coordinator Anthony Campanile’s defense gives Buffalo fits, and Liam Coen stomps out the Bills at home.
49ers +5.5 over EAGLES
I’m far from an Eagles supporter, and I’ll pass on backing them in this spot as a massive favorite, even with San Francisco battling injuries. Philadelphia’s offense ranked No. 9 in the first half of the season and No. 22 in the second half. DVOA still respects San Francisco, ranking them No. 10 overall, while the Eagles are down significantly to No. 15. Trent Williams logged back-to-back practices, leading me to believe that he could play, which is absolutely critical for them.
Since 2020, the 49ers are 4-13 when Williams doesn’t play and 61-32 when he does. They need him badly. I’ll take San Fran to keep it close, as the Eagles don’t really blow anyone out, not named the Raiders and Commanders.
PATRIOTS -3.5 over Chargers
West Coast Chargers head on the road to play the New England Patriots in a game that is projected to be a cold and rainy affair on Sunday night. Los Angeles’ offense is nearing collapse right now, with problems on the offensive line being just one of the many issues facing Justin Herbert.
Omarion Hampton is also hobbled but expects to play in this game.
This comes as Drake Maye and the Patriots appear to be hitting their stride in recent weeks. The Chargers are No. 17 in DVOA while the Patriots are No. 9. New England is averaging 7.1 YPP in their last three games, most of which was padded against the dispicably bad Jets, but the Chargers averaged just five YPP in that timespan.
There’s really nothing working in the Chargers’ favor; the Patriots should roll here.
Betting on the NFL?
MONDAY
STEELERS +3 over TEXANS
Aaron Rodgers is still a bad man, and he gets back DK Metcalf on Monday night. Rodgers and the Steelers are playing their best football of the year, and my model backs it up, making Pittsburgh a two-point home underdog against the Texans.
Houston’s defense has shown cracks in its armor, allowing 5.5 YPP in their last three versus 4.8 YPP on the season. Their offense has also been at the bottom of the NFL all season, so this is the spot to target Pittsburgh, whose defense is playing its best football, and its offense appears to be clicking.
Last week: 6-8
Season: 116-123-5
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Erich Richter is a brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt but he has a black belt in MMA betting. During the football season he’s showcased massive profits at The Post in the player prop market the last two seasons. While constantly betting long shots, his return on investment is 30.15 percent since 2022.
